by Dmitry Orlov
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Much as we may dislike the fact, the results from quantum physics are unequivocal: parallel universes do exist. Schrödinger's cat is both alive and dead, at the same time, while it exists as a probability distribution, which is resolved into either a live cat or a dead one by the act of opening the box and observing it. But until the observation is made, both parallel universes can be said to exist, and there is no way for us to know which one of them we inhabit.
Quantum effects dominate in the micro realm of subatomic particles. For instance, the laptop on which I am typing this contains millions of transistors which are created by implanting ions into silicon substrates to create patches with built-in electric fields and interconnecting these patches with etched aluminum wiring. Each transistor relies on the phenomenon of quantum tunneling: while in normal physics it is impossible for an electron to find itself on the wrong side of a built-in electric field, in quantum physics the electron is a probability distribution, not a particle, and quantum tunneling works reliably enough to support the entire electronics industry. But if you scale your circuit up, the chance of a pickup truck successfully “tunneling” through a brick wall becomes too minuscule to be of practical interest. It is still possible, but it would take anywhere between right now and several lifetimes of the universe hence to observe that result.
Oddly enough, such quantum effects are quite normal to observe within the political space. Here the physical objects involved are far too large to give rise to the parallel universes of quantum physics, but the narratives they give rise to are not. This is because the narratives are a matter of perception, and there can be historical periods, such as the present one, when the peephole through which the political establishment and the mainstream media allow us to see the world becomes so tiny that it becomes a toss-up as to whether or not any given photon will manage to find its way through it.
Here, reality becomes fractured into parallel universes as soon as we make the realization that we are being lied to. Were there weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? No, and the vial of white powder which Colin Powell menacingly held up at the UN was fake. The Iraqi mobile biological weapons factories did not exist. Was Al Qaeda active in Iraq prior to the US invasion? No, we know that it wasn't. These lies are now known to be factual—uncontested, commonplace knowledge. Next: do we make the arbitrary leap of judgment and declare that that's all the lies we will have ever been told, or do we admit the possibility that this is only the tip of an iceberg of lies, that lying is a modus operandi for the operatives behind them? If we do, then, to be conservative, for every official narrative we must construct one or more unofficial but also plausible (and perhaps much more plausible) narratives. Each of them constitutes a parallel universe, and we can't know which of them we inhabit until some happy accident—a leak, an investigation, a damning bit of physical evidence, or an outright admission of complicity or guilt—collapses the probability waveform, destroying all the parallel universes but the real one.
Many people have been conditioned to think that this is the realm of “conspiracy theory.” Unfortunately, the term doesn't apply. First, the existence of a conspiracy has to be accepted as a given: nobody ever perpetrates a heinous act of murder, mayhem and destruction by telegraphing their intentions ahead of time. If they do, the event usually doesn't go off as planned, and in such cases it is usually announced that a conspiracy has been uncovered and a plot thwarted. Thus, the use of the term “conspiracy” is gratuitous; it goes without saying that there always is one. Secondly, the term “theory” is gratuitous as well: a theory is a mental construct designed to account for a given set of observations. But what if all you do is point out the observations (which are in the public domain, there for all to see) and make no effort whatsoever to account for them?
However, there is one theory that accounts for a very large class of such observations, and it is so simple that it is often overlooked. It is this: that the government and the official sources of information are normally lying. We already know that they have lied in the past (Iraqi WMD and al Qaeda in Iraq are two particularly well-known examples, but there are many others). The question then becomes, When did they stop lying (if in fact they did)? Was there a conspiracy to stop lying? There would have to have been one, because we certainly haven't heard any statements made by public officials to the effect that “We will now stop lying.” Or did they spontaneously all stop lying at the same time? The probability of that happening is pretty low; it could, of course happen—any time between right now and several lifetimes of the universe hence. So if you believe that they have indeed stopped lying, then I suppose that makes you a conspiracy theorist par excellence. The conservative assumption is that they are still lying.
There are lots of people who have been working to keep these parallel universes alive in one form or another, by collecting and collating bits of information, by offering partial explanations, by evaluating the official explanations as to their logical consistency. They have been doing this in spite of being ostracized as “conspiracy theorists.” To be fair, they have sometimes been glorified as “truth-seekers” or “truth-tellers” and that must provide an ego boost for some people. But really what they have been doing is generating, and sustaining, alternative narratives and keeping parallel universes alive, so that at some time in the future we will find out which one we have been inhabiting all along.
Some people make the mistake of refusing to listen and to explore these parallel universes, because it makes them ill at ease not to know which one they happen to inhabit. But if you accept the extreme likelihood that the official narrative is a bunch of lies concocted to hide the truth, then there is some comfort to be gained in at least knowing something that might not be a lie. Once the initial hesitation is past, it becomes a fun, if somewhat macabre, hobby, because puzzling evidence jumps out at you just about everywhere you care to look.
An important precondition of being able to interpret the result of Schrödinger's thought experiment is being able to figure out what a cat looks like. Here is a specific example. Currently, there are two parallel universes. In one, Russian troops have invaded Ukraine. In the other, Russian troops did not invade Ukraine. What makes this difficult is understanding what is meant by Russian troops. There are Russians in eastern Ukraine. There are troops in eastern Ukraine. A lot of the troops in eastern Ukraine are in fact Russian. But there are no Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Get it? To qualify as actual Russian troops, they would have to have enlisted in the Russian military, and would have to take their orders through the Russian chain of command. And these ones obviously don't. There is a strong political connection with Russia, but the military one is tenuous. The latest “proof” of Russian invasion, offered by the Ukraine's president Poroshenko in Munich, consists of some Russian internal passports and military service certificates found in eastern Ukraine. Funny thing is, when you are inducted into the Russian military, you have to surrender those civilian documents. Sometimes a perfectly viable, though quite short-lived parallel universe can be concocted by twisting things in small ways.
But most of the time a parallel universe pops into existence when things get twisted in impressively brazen and shameless ways. A lot of people start with 9/11. The twin towers collapsed because they were hit by jet airliners because, you see, kerosene melts steel. Was it special, magic kerosene, and were the buildings were made of special, magic steel? Maybe that's why since then skyscrapers can't be insured against fire any more. Previously it was thought that skyscrapers can't collapse due to fire because they are made of steel, and a hydrocarbon-based fire isn't hot enough to melt it. What fools those civil engineers must have been! Turns out, all you need is some kerosene!
Then the two skyscrapers spontaneously collapsed into their own footprints—all on their own—and so the entire industry of demolition experts (whose job is to mine tall buildings with explosive charges and detonate them under computer control to keep the buildings from toppling over) has since been retired. Skyscrapers are now known to pose a huge fire hazard due to the melty steel of which they are made, and they must all be demolished right away. But don't hire any demolition experts, since we now know that their entire industry was a hoax, because skyscrapers collapse into their own footprints all by themselves. Just take some retired old jets from American Airlines (they have plenty of them) and fly them into the skyscrapers unmanned using remote fly by wire technology.
Another “plane” hit the Pentagon. That plane had no engines, since none were found (but in spite of this it not only flew, but executed a pirouette worthy of a jet fighter). Also, it had no seats (the passengers must have mimed sitting down and buckling up) and no luggage (they must have traveled really light). The perpetrators' identity was found out thanks to a passport found at the World Trade Center site. It was a magic passport; unlike the steel girders of the twin towers, a kerosene fireball could not even singe it.
Fast-forward to the latest staged atrocity: the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris. The perpetrators were clearly well-trained, disciplined commandos, who executed a flawless mission, making it likely that they were special service people of some country or other. But then one of them magically forgot his ID in the getaway car—just like that passport magically found in the wreckage of 9/11. (Do commandos take their civilian IDs with them when they go on a secret mission?) And then the alleged driver of the getaway car surrendered to the police, saying that he has an ironclad alibi. The fact that he surrendered was reported in the media; the reason why he surrendered was not. And then the person charged with conducting the investigation killed himself while working on his report. Did his report agree with the official narrative?
Reminds me of another staged atrocity: the Boston Marathon bombing. The very large number of special ops people milling about the scene before the firecrackers went off has been noted, but clearly they had nothing to do with it—they were just enjoying their day off, all dressed the same. The two patsies who were blamed for it—the Tsarnaev brothers—were well-known to the FBI. After the firecrackers went off, a crew of specialists immediately descended on the scene, with actors posing as victims and fake blood being tossed about. Video evidence shows them taking a long time to stage photo-ops of the supposed atrocity.
The ensuing media campaign with “Boston Strong” stickers was identical to the “Je suis Carlie” campaign following the Charlie Hebdo event. And as with the Charlie Hebdo event, there was a concerted effort to kill the alleged perpetrators before they could answer any questions in ways that might contradict the official story. In the case of the Tsarnaev brothers, the attempt to kill the younger one failed. The boat in which he was hiding, scared and unarmed, was riddled with bullets, and after he surrendered an unexplained emergency tracheotomy was performed on him, but he is still alive, and defiant of the efforts to frame him.
But the most interesting part came after the event, when Boston was placed under military occupation, with residents forced to stay inside their houses for fear of being machine-gunned down by troops rumbling down the streets in APCs, supposedly in pursuit of a couple of kids. The real rationale for the event was to impose martial law on Boston (the cradle of the American Revolution) on Patriot's Day (which commemorates a signal event that started it). If you read into these events just a little bit, you just might come to the conclusion that the US is no longer a constitutional democracy but a military dictatorship and a police state ruled by an oligarchy that likes to stage gruesome special events to show just how far above the law it really is.
Or take the Malaysian Airlines MH-17 shoot-down over Eastern Ukraine last year. Again, the media campaign was clearly set up before the event. The clairvoyant western observers know who to blame: it was the “Russian-backed rebels” and they used a weapons system provided by Russia. This was repeated endlessly, using a technique used in advertising: “proof by repetition.” Never mind that the rebels had no ability to shoot down that airliner. But the truth has been slowly dribbling out. Flight MH-17 was shot down by a Ukrainian jet fighter from Dnepropetrovsk using an air-to-air missile. (The rebels had no aircraft; why was it armed with one?) The name of the pilot is now known. The person who identified him is in Russia, in witness protection. Russian investigators are pursuing leads, and there is a good chance that we will eventually find out who issued the criminal orders.
I could keep going in this vein for a really long time, piling bits of puzzling evidence upon other bits of puzzling evidence. But the whole point of this exercise is to try to get across to you of one very simple, basic point: if you insist on ignoring all the obvious lies you've been told for years and years and dismiss everything but the official narrative as a “conspiracy theory,” then that makes you something of a mind control victim. And I don't want you to be a victim.
One last thing: if you find yourself living in a Schrödinger box, do what you can to avoid ending up dead. I'll leave it up to you to work out out the details of that, but the hint is simple: your likelihood of ending up dead is higher if you believe in lies. Don't be a dead cat.
Published on Feb 16, 2015
Jim Willie Interview With Paul Sandhu On Wake Up and Live Radio
Dr. Jim Willie offers his deep analysis on major financial and Geopolitical developments. Topics discussed are as follows:
· Breaking News on Swiss Bank Failures
· Greece Debt Default, Exit from Euro and its catastrophic consequences
· US being isolated as Germany & France swing East
· China hurting US Economy by disrupting shipping through West Coast Ports
· Russia and China now biggest players in Latin America
Important scoop on how Swiss banks are uniformly denying refusing withdrawals of cash accounts by clients whose account sizes are between hundreds of $millions and $4 to $5 billion, with clients coming mostly European and Swiss but also Asian, Latin American, even Russian, some of the accounts drug money, making evident a bankrupt Swiss banking system suffering the aftermath of the SWFranc de-peg three weeks ago… covered Greek debt default and exit from the European Union, with the banker elite showing desperation, extending from the defiant new Greek leadership… covered the developments toward truce in Ukraine according to the Minsk Treaty, with mention of the devastation at the Debaltseva Cauldrin hotspot, which will identify the United States as the rogue bellicose nation, resulting in extreme US isolation… covered the Western US Port stalled dock situation, lockouts versus union strikes, which might have an element of Chinese vengeance to strangle the USEconomy, seen soon in empty retail store shelves… covered the capture of Latin America, country by country, at the hands of Russia & China
Dr. Jim Willie website: Goldenjackass.com
Paul Sandhu Interviews Jim Willie
Parts 1 and 2
Published on Feb 13, 2015
In this great 3 hour interview, the one and only Golden Jackass, Doc Jim Willie shared his deep insights.
Published on Feb 12, 2015
A GoldSeek.com LIVE webinar
Featuring Dr Jim Willie, CEO Rudy Fronk Seabridge Gold Inc, & Gianni Kovacevic author of “My Electrician Drives a Porche?”
The Jim Willie portion begins at the 49 minutes mark. Willie covers the Swiss Franc currency situation, the Ukraine War hidden motives, factors surrounding the death of the Petro-Dollar, and several questions from the audience.
by John Michael Greer
The Archdruid Report | February 4, 2015
I was saddened to learn a few days ago, via a phone call from a fellow author, that William R. Catton Jr. died early last month, just short of his 89th birthday. Some of my readers will have no idea who he was; others may dimly recall that I’ve mentioned him and his most important book, Overshoot, repeatedly in these essays. Those who’ve taken the time to read the book just named may be wondering why none of the sites in the peak oil blogosphere has put up an obituary, or even noted the man’s passing. I don’t happen to know the answer to that last question, though I have my suspicions.
I encountered Overshoot for the first time in a college bookstore in Bellingham, Washington in 1983. Red letters on a stark yellow spine spelled out the title, a word I already knew from my classes in ecology and systems theory; I pulled it off the shelf, and found the future staring me in the face. This is what’s on the front cover below the title:
If you want to know where I got the core ideas I’ve been exploring in these essays for the last eight-going-on-nine years, in other words, now you know. I still have that copy of Overshoot; it’s sitting on the desk in front of me right now, reminding me yet again just how many chances we had to turn away from the bleak future that’s closing in around us now, like the night at the end of a long day.
Plenty of books in the 1970s and early 1980s applied the lessons of ecology to the future of industrial civilization and picked up at least part of the bad news that results. Overshoot was arguably the best of the lot, but it was pretty much guaranteed to land even deeper in the memory hole than the others. The difficulty was that Catton’s book didn’t pander to the standard mythologies that still beset any attempt to make sense of the predicament we’ve made for ourselves; it provided no encouragement to what he called cargoism, the claim that technological progress will inevitably allow us to have our planet and eat it too, without falling off the other side of the balance into the sort of apocalyptic daydreams that Hollywood loves to make into bad movies. Instead, in calm, crisp, thoughtful prose, he explained how industrial civilization was cutting its own throat, how far past the point of no return we’d already gone, and what had to be done in order to salvage anything from the approaching wreck.
As I noted in a post here in 2011, I had the chance to meet Catton at an ASPO conference, and tried to give him some idea of how much his book had meant to me. I did my best not to act like a fourteen-year-old fan meeting a rock star, but I’m by no means sure that I succeeded. We talked for fifteen minutes over dinner; he was very gracious; then things moved on, each of us left the conference to carry on with our lives, and now he’s gone. As the old song says, that’s the way it goes.
There’s much more that could be said about William Catton, but that task should probably be left for someone who knew the man as a teacher, a scholar, and a human being. I didn’t; except for that one fifteen-minute conversation, I knew him solely as the mind behind one of the books that helped me make sense of the world, and then kept me going on the long desert journey through the Reagan era, when most of those who claimed to be environmentalists over the previous decade cashed in their ideals and waved around the cornucopian myth as their excuse for that act. Thus I’m simply going to urge all of my readers who haven’t yet read Overshoot to do so as soon as possible, even if they have to crawl on their bare hands and knees over abandoned fracking equipment to get a copy. Having said that, I’d like to go on to the sort of tribute I think he would have appreciated most: an attempt to take certain of his ideas a little further than he did.
The core of Overshoot, which is also the core of the entire world of appropriate technology and green alternatives that got shot through the head and shoved into an unmarked grave in the Reagan years, is the recognition that the principles of ecology apply to industrial society just as much as they do to other communities of living things. It’s odd, all things considered, that this is such a controversial proposal. Most of us have no trouble grasping the fact that the law of gravity affects human beings the same way it affects rocks; most of us understand that other laws of nature really do apply to us; but quite a few of us seem to be incapable of extending that same sensible reasoning to one particular set of laws, the ones that govern how communities of living things relate to their environments.
If people treated gravity the way they treat ecology, you could visit a news website any day of the week and read someone insisting with a straight face that while it’s true that rocks fall down when dropped, human beings don’t—no, no, they fall straight up into the sky, and anyone who thinks otherwise is so obviously wrong that there’s no point even discussing the matter. That degree of absurdity appears every single day in the American media, and in ordinary conversations as well, whenever ecological issues come up. Suggest that a finite planet must by definition contain a finite amount of fossil fuels, that dumping billions of tons of gaseous trash into the air every single year for centuries might change the way that the atmosphere retains heat, or that the law of diminishing returns might apply to technology the way it applies to everything else, and you can pretty much count on being shouted down by those who, for all practical purposes, might as well believe that the world is flat.
Still, as part of the ongoing voyage into the unspeakable in which this blog is currently engaged, I’d like to propose that, in fact, human societies are as subject to the laws of ecology as they are to every other dimension of natural law. That act of intellectual heresy implies certain conclusions that are acutely unwelcome in most circles just now; still, as my regular readers will have noticed long since, that’s just one of the services this blog offers.
Let’s start with the basics. Every ecosystem, in thermodynamic terms, is a process by which relatively concentrated energy is dispersed into diffuse background heat. Here on Earth, at least, the concentrated energy mostly comes from the Sun, in the form of solar radiation—there are a few ecosystems, in deep oceans and underground, that get their energy from chemical reactions driven by the Earth’s internal heat instead. Ilya Prigogine showed some decades back that the flow of energy through a system of this sort tends to increase the complexity of the system; Jeremy England, a MIT physicist, has recently shown that the same process accounts neatly for the origin of life itself. The steady flow of energy from source to sink is the foundation on which everything else rests.
The complexity of the system, in turn, is limited by the rate at which energy flows through the system, and this in turn depends on the difference in concentration between the energy that enters the system, on the one hand, and the background into which waste heat diffuses when it leaves the system, on the other. That shouldn’t be a difficult concept to grasp. Not only is it basic thermodynamics, it’s basic physics—it’s precisely equivalent, in fact, to pointing out that the rate at which water flows through any section of a stream depends on the difference in height between the place where the water flows into that section and the place where it flows out.
Simple as it is, it’s a point that an astonishing number of people—including some who are scientifically literate—routinely miss. A while back on this blog, for example, I noted that one of the core reasons you can’t power a modern industrial civilization on solar energy is that sunlight is relatively diffuse as an energy source, compared to the extremely concentrated energy we get from fossil fuels. I still field rants from people insisting that this is utter hogwash, since photons have exactly the same amount of energy they did when they left the Sun, and so the energy they carry is just as concentrated as it was when it left the Sun. You’ll notice, though, that if this was the only variable that mattered, Neptune would be just as warm as Mercury, since each of the photons hitting the one planet pack on average the same energetic punch as those that hit the other.
It’s hard to think of a better example of the blindness to whole systems that’s pandemic in today’s geek culture. Obviously, the difference between the temperatures of Neptune and Mercury isn’t a function of the energy of individual photons hitting the two worlds; it’s a function of differing concentrations of photons—the number of them, let’s say, hitting a square meter of each planet’s surface. This is also one of the two figures that matter when we’re talking about solar energy here on Earth. The other? That’s the background heat into which waste energy disperses when the system, eco- or solar, is done with it. On the broadest scale, that’s deep space, but ecosystems don’t funnel their waste heat straight into orbit, you know. Rather, they diffuse it into the ambient temperature at whatever height above or below sea level, and whatever latitude closer or further from the equator, they happen to be—and since that’s heated by the Sun, too, the difference between input and output concentrations isn’t very substantial.
Nature has done astonishing things with that very modest difference in concentration. People who insist that photosynthesis is horribly inefficient, and of course we can improve its efficiency, are missing a crucial point: something like half the energy that reaches the leaves of a green plant from the Sun is put to work lifting water up from the roots by an ingenious form of evaporative pumping, in which water sucked out through the leaf pores as vapor draws up more water through a network of tiny tubes in the plant’s stems. Another few per cent goes into the manufacture of sugars by photosynthesis, and a variety of minor processes, such as the chemical reactions that ripen fruit, also depend to some extent on light or heat from the Sun; all told, a green plant is probably about as efficient in its total use of solar energy as the laws of thermodynamics will permit.
What’s more, the Earth’s ecosystems take the energy that flows through the green engines of plant life and put it to work in an extraordinary diversity of ways. The water pumped into the sky by what botanists call evapotranspiration—that’s the evaporative pumping I mentioned a moment ago—plays critical roles in local, regional, and global water cycles. The production of sugars to store solar energy in chemical form kicks off an even more intricate set of changes, as the plant’s cells are eaten by something, which is eaten by something, and so on through the lively but precise dance of the food web. Eventually all the energy the original plant scooped up from the Sun turns into diffuse waste heat and permeates slowly up through the atmosphere to its ultimate destiny warming some corner of deep space a bit above absolute zero, but by the time it gets there, it’s usually had quite a ride.
That said, there are hard upper limits to the complexity of the ecosystem that these intricate processes can support. You can see that clearly enough by comparing a tropical rain forest to a polar tundra. The two environments may have approximately equal amounts of precipitation over the course of a year; they may have an equally rich or poor supply of nutrients in the soil; even so, the tropical rain forest can easily support fifteen or twenty thousand species of plants and animals, and the tundra will be lucky to support a few hundred. Why? The same reason Mercury is warmer than Neptune: the rate at which photons from the sun arrive in each place per square meter of surface.
Near the equator, the sun’s rays fall almost vertically. Close to the poles, since the Earth is round, the Sun’s rays come in at a sharp angle, and thus are spread out over more surface area. The ambient temperature’s quite a bit warmer in the rain forest than it is on the tundra, but because the vast heat engine we call the atmosphere pumps heat from the equator to the poles, the difference in ambient temperature is not as great as the difference in solar input per cubic meter. Thus ecosystems near the equator have a greater difference in energy concentration between input and output than those near the poles, and the complexity of the two systems varies accordingly.
All this should be common knowledge. Of course it isn’t, because the industrial world’s notions of education consistently ignore what William Catton called “the processes that matter”—that is, the fundamental laws of ecology that frame our existence on this planet—and approach a great many of those subjects that do make it into the curriculum in ways that encourage the most embarrassing sort of ignorance about the natural processes that keep us all alive. Down the road a bit, we’ll be discussing that in much more detail. For now, though, I want to take the points just made and apply them systematically, in much the way Catton did, to the predicament of industrial civilization.
A human society is an ecosystem. Like any other ecosystem, it depends for its existence on flows of energy, and as with any other ecosystem, the upper limit on its complexity depends ultimately on the difference in concentration between the energy that enters it and the background into which its waste heat disperses. (This last point is a corollary of White’s Law, one of the fundamental principles of human ecology, which holds that a society’s economic development is directly proportional to its consumption of energy per capita.) Until the beginning of the industrial revolution, that upper limit was not much higher than the upper limit of complexity in other ecosystems, since human ecosystems drew most of their energy from the same source as nonhuman ones: sunlight falling on green plants. As human societies figured out how to tap other flows of solar energy—windpower to drive windmills and send ships coursing over the seas, water power to turn mills, and so on—that upper limit crept higher, but not dramatically so.
The discoveries that made it possible to turn fossil fuels into mechanical energy transformed that equation completely. The geological processes that stockpiled half a billion years of sunlight into coal, oil, and natural gas boosted the concentration of the energy inputs available to industrial societies by an almost unimaginable factor, without warming the ambient temperature of the planet more than a few degrees, and the huge differentials in energy concentration that resulted drove an equally unimaginable increase in complexity. Choose any measure of complexity you wish—number of discrete occupational categories, average number of human beings involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of any given good or service, or what have you—and in the wake of the industrial revolution, it soared right off the charts. Thermodynamically, that’s exactly what you’d expect.
The difference in energy concentration between input and output, it bears repeating, defines the upper limit of complexity. Other variables determine whether or not the system in question will achieve that upper limit. In the ecosystems we call human societies, knowledge is one of those other variables. If you have a highly concentrated energy source and don’t yet know how to use it efficiently, your society isn’t going to become as complex as it otherwise could. Over the three centuries of industrialization, as a result, the production of useful knowledge was a winning strategy, since it allowed industrial societies to rise steadily toward the upper limit of complexity defined by the concentration differential. The limit was never reached—the law of diminishing returns saw to that—and so, inevitably, industrial societies ended up believing that knowledge all by itself was capable of increasing the complexity of the human ecosystem. Since there’s no upper limit to knowledge, in turn, that belief system drove what Catton called the cornucopian myth, the delusion that there would always be enough resources if only the stock of knowledge increased quickly enough.
That belief only seemed to work, though, as long as the concentration differential between energy inputs and the background remained very high. Once easily accessible fossil fuels started to become scarce, and more and more energy and other resources had to be invested in the extraction of what remained, problems started to crop up. Tar sands and oil shales in their natural form are not as concentrated an energy source as light sweet crude—once they’re refined, sure, the differences are minimal, but a whole system analysis of energy concentration has to start at the moment each energy source enters the system. Take a cubic yard of tar sand fresh from the pit mine, with the sand still in it, or a cubic yard of oil shale with the oil still trapped in the rock, and you’ve simply got less energy per unit volume than you do if you’ve got a cubic yard of light sweet crude fresh from the well, or even a cubic yard of good permeable sandstone with light sweet crude oozing out of every pore.
It’s an article of faith in contemporary culture that such differences don’t matter, but that’s just another aspect of our cornucopian myth. The energy needed to get the sand out of the tar sands or the oil out of the shale oil has to come from somewhere, and that energy, in turn, is not available for other uses. The result, however you slice it conceptually, is that the upper limit of complexity begins moving down. That sounds abstract, but it adds up to a great deal of very concrete misery, because as already noted, the complexity of a society determines such things as the number of different occupational specialties it can support, the number of employees who are involved in the production and distribution of a given good or service, and so on. There’s a useful phrase for a sustained contraction in the usual measures of complexity in a human ecosystem: “economic depression.”
The economic troubles that are shaking the industrial world more and more often these days, in other words, are symptoms of a disastrous mismatch between the level of complexity that our remaining concentration differential can support, and the level of complexity that our preferred ideologies insist we ought to have. As those two things collide, there’s no question which of them is going to win. Adding to our total stock of knowledge won’t change that result, since knowledge is a necessary condition for economic expansion but not a sufficient one: if the upper limit of complexity set by the laws of thermodynamics drops below the level that your knowledge base would otherwise support, further additions to the knowledge base simply mean that there will be a growing number of things that people know how to do in theory, but that nobody has the resources to do in practice.
Knowledge, in other words, is not a magic wand, a surrogate messiah, or a source of miracles. It can open the way to exploiting energy more efficiently than otherwise, and it can figure out how to use energy resources that were not previously being used at all, but it can’t conjure energy out of thin air. Even if the energy resources are there, for that matter, if other factors prevent them from being used, the knowledge of how they might be used offers no consolation—quite the contrary.
That latter point, I think, sums up the tragedy of William Catton’s career. He knew, and could explain with great clarity, why industrialism would bring about its own downfall, and what could be done to salvage something from its wreck. That knowledge, however, was not enough to make things happen; only a few people ever listened, most of them promptly plugged their ears and started chanting “La, la, la, I can’t hear you” once Reagan made that fashionable, and the actions that might have spared all of us a vast amount of misery never happened. When I spoke to him in 2011, he was perfectly aware that his life’s work had done essentially nothing to turn industrial society aside from its rush toward the abyss. That’s got to be a bitter thing to contemplate in your final hours, and I hope his thoughts were on something else last month as the night closed in at last.
by James Howard Kunstler
Bruce Jenner’s journey to transgender sainthood was interrupted Saturday on the road to Malibu, and with it perhaps the Kardashian Klan’s hopes and dreams for achieving supremacy of the known universe. All of America was twerking at the news because that is what we do and who we are now. The nation’s attention these blizzardy days would have otherwise gone straight from the Super-bowl halftime hallucination to the stupendous narcissistic grandiosity of the Grammy Awards. America becomes, day upon day, one gigantic act of “performance art” geared to shocking a bourgeoisie that has dwindled so deeply that, curiously, there may be absolutely nobody left to shock.
Of course the Kardashians are a mere metaphor for what has happened to this country, and Bruce Jenner is a metaphor for what has happened to American men. Maybe that’s why they persist in the spotlight. It is a well-known fact that motorists on a highway always slow down to see just what happened at the grisly scene of the accident. We can’t take our eyes off these freaks and geeks.
The Romans, on their journey to decadence, lacked the voltage and the wiring to amplify the anomie overtaking them. We’re bathed and bombarded with the images of exactly how disgusting we are. People of WalMart, throw off your chains of debt, indeed! Imagine trying to govern a land of such vicious dolts. Well, here’s a news flash: no one is really trying — whether from a lack of conviction or courage or intelligence, or out of sheer contempt, it is hard to say.
It is heartening, finally, to see Europe attempt to creep away from the intrigues of our Klown Konfederacy at least in the current matter of Ukraine, that poor perpetually over-trodden land of potato-eaters lately torn asunder by America’s idiotic wish to wrest it away from Russia’s 1000-year sphere of influence. Merkel and Hollande stole over to Moscow last week to confab with Mr. Putin. They evidently omitted to inform the haircut-in-search-of-a-brain, Secretary of State John Kerry. Who would want that mule-faced ninny at the table? The Europeans are beginning to say some sane and arresting things, such as: Russia and Europe are part of the same civilization — note the implication that perhaps America is not so much in that club anymore. Perhaps it should be left twerking out on one of its fabulous lost highways until it is all twerked out.
Europe, of course, has its own problems and they are very grave, and they are hard to understand because they derive from a financial system grown so abstruse and impenetrable that the ancient black magic arts look like a game of Go Fish in comparison. At this late stage, they can only pretend to figure out where all the entwined obligations really lead, and what might happen if someone starts to yank on a thread somewhere. The question for the moment therefore is: can they continue to succeed in pretending? A sickening sense of look-out-below spreads through the sentient ranks. This week will be a doozy.
One thing is clearing up: Europe does not want or need to start a war with Russia at America’s insistence. What America needs is a war with itself, a war against the lazy narcissism that has left it susceptible to armies of grifters and racketeers, because ordinary people were too busy twerking and jerking to pay any real attention to the systematic dismemberment of their culture. Waiting in the wings is a whole category of human endeavor quaintly known as virtue, lately absent in the collective consciousness. What a shock it would be if Americans began to witness acts of fortitude and valor among us.
Note: JHK’s 2015 Forecast is available now at this link:
Forecast 2015 — Life in the Breakdown Lane
The new World Made By Hand novel
!! Is now available !!
“Kunstler skewers everything from kitsch to greed, prejudice, bloodshed, and brainwashing in this wily, funny, rip-roaring, and profoundly provocative page- turner, leaving no doubt that the prescriptive yet devilishly satiric A World Made by Hand series will continue.” — Booklist
by Dmitry Orlov
Tuesday, February 03, 2015
Quite a few of those currently inhabiting the belly of the decrepit and senile beast of western industrial civilization are experiencing an extreme sense of unease about what the future is likely to bring. But living with such a sensation is less than pleasant. In some other, perhaps less civilized language, the resolution to this crisis may be expressed as a special way of being, but in the language of civilization, the only possible work-out is through taking action. We must DO SOMETHING!
After all, who would want to not care about things that aren't important at the moment, not think about objects that are not immediately and tangibly present, not treat depictions or representations as real or valid—but rely exclusively on their own perceptions, and perhaps those they share with those few people who are close to them? A decidedly uncivilized person, by most people's standards. But we must remain civilized, and to be civilized means to always be driving towards some destination, even if it is an imaginary one. “Stop the world, I want to get off!” some of them exclaim in exasperation. But they are willing prisoners of this metaphor of the world as purposeful action, and their talk of escape is a mental loop (an escapist one) within another mental loop (from which there is no escape).
And so they must DO SOMETHING. But it turns out that they can't because of another mandatory element of civilized existence, which is to have and to own… stuff. Now, owning something is not exactly an action; it is a state of being, but a rather impersonal one: person X owning a thing is exactly the same as person Y owning that exact same thing. Nevertheless, civilized persons are very much defined by the things that they own, the brands they favor, and the physical setting they demand. So they must do something about their civilized existence, but that civilized existence demands a house with electricity, running hot and cold water, heating and air conditioning, a car, a pile of electronic toys and an even bigger pile of stuff they never actually use, but simply have.
What prompted me to think about this? First-hand observation, actually. I just started a house-sit at an off-grid house on one of the lagoons in the Bocas archipelago in northern Panama. The house is rather well set up: lots of solar panels and battery banks, internet access via a network of wifi repeaters, a rainwater collection system, a dock with two power boats (the nearest town is 30 minutes away at full throttle), a big orchard out back that produces bananas, plantains, mangoes, a cat and a dog… It's quite an establishment, and it has to be lived in and attended to at all times, to keep entropy at bay. This house is by no means unique: it is part of a constellation of similar houses which dot the surrounding shores, whose residents are quite gregarious, with powerboats crisscrossing the lagoon as they go visiting. It is all quite civilized. Some people here have a survivalist mindset, and feel that, being ensconced in their outposts in the mangroves, they are well situated to ride out the process of the whole world going to hell in a hand-basket.
And then right next door live the local Indios. Two Indio kids show up almost every day, a 5-year-old and a 3-year-old, paddling an ancient-looking cayuca carved out of a tree trunk. They hang out next to our dock, which attracts fish, which they catch for their family meal, one fish right after another, using hand lines with unbaited hooks, while their parents are off tending a patch of something or other edible out in the jungle. (The concept of child care is somehow completely missing.) Some older kids show up sporadically, who are of dating age, and since dating now requires having a cell phone, which needs to be charged, they bring us their cell phones, with chargers, in plastic bags so that they don't get wet while they paddle over, and ask us to charge them.
These Indios inhabit a wild, roadless terrain, half-water, half-jungle (the nearest road is a two-hour hike over a mountain pass), do not avail themselves of any government services, don't have bank accounts and trade a little or work as day-laborers for the few things they need. They are the happiest, most congenial, most carefree people it has ever been my privilege to encounter. They wear threadbare hand-me-downs (shorts and a t-shirt is almost too much clothing in this climate) and live in little shacks on pilings nailed together out of sticks that they probably salvaged as driftwood. They get around on foot or in cayucas which they carve out of trees. Their goal-directed activities seem limited to finding food and tending their few and humble possessions. They take long mid-day naps in their hamacas and paddle out to the middle of the lagoon in the cool evenings to socialize, where I can hear their laughter until well after sundown.
But we can't be like them, now, can we? We need all this stuff: solar panels, banks of lead-acid batteries (I need to check the electrolyte levels today), propane appliances for hot water and cooking, demand pump for the water system, wifi repeaters for the internet… Whenever it is left unguarded, the whole compound needs to be locked down tight because otherwise it might get looted (there is a machete under the bed). The stable of speed boats, which are the only way to get in or out, has to be maintained. And to keep it all together somebody somewhere has to fly jet aircraft, perform rhinoplasties, tweak high-frequency trading algorithms or do something or other purposeful and goal-directed, because these things don't pay for themselves, you know.
I suppose I could do something purposeful and goal-directed like that too, because I did, once upon a time. But I don't, because, first of all, I don't want to. Secondly, I have my own purposes, goals and methods. Spending winters in the tropics rent-free is, I believe, a worthy goal. Building an absolutely amazing houseboat that sails is another, and I am ready to put up with having to engage in other, unrelated, purposeful, goal-directed activities in order to raise the money. (Rhinoplasty, anyone?) There are a few more. But I refuse to rush, because that would spoil all the fun. And so I'll do a bit of blogging, and later on today I'll go visit a nearby organic cocoa farm. And I have no idea what I'll be doing tomorrow, and that, I believe, is just fine.
“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
– George Orwell
Willie calls it his way. Trade down, Taxes up. State Spending up, Income down.
Chaos, so Spend your way out, hmm, with what? Print more.
But, but, but, isn't that why we got in this mess in the first place? So dig deeper.
My God, and they made YOU President?
by Jim Willie | Gold Seek
28 January 2015
In the closing months of 2014, on numerous occasions the position was put forth that as the days of January stacked up, toward the end of the month and going into February, that the global financial structures would show severe strain, widespread disruptions, and possible signs of cracks in breakdown. The forecasts were clearly stated and repeated. Even the present flow of events has been shocking, despite the expectation. The forecast certainly has proved correct. The disruptive events and pace of systemic breakdown are surely going to continue. The year will go down in history as extremely messy, extremely chaotic, and extremely important in the demise of the USDollar. Check the 7-year cycle for an amazing sequence that goes back to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1980 Gold & Silver Hunt Brothers peak, the 1987 Black Monday, the 1994 Irrational Exuberance with ensuing Asian Meltdown, the 2001 Inside 9/11 Job, and the 2008 Lehman failure. The year 2015 will be known for the USDollar demise with full fireworks, set up with Ukraine and the European repeat of Waterloo. A quickening pace of events is highly indicative in two natural types in nature, namely the lead up to a natural earthquake, and the lead up to a human childbirth.
Key Accelerant Events
The forecast about fast acceleration of events into the January month has occurred on schedule. Normally a very big event occurs every several weeks, or every few months. In just the last three weeks ten have taken place of significance. The pace has quickened in an alarming fashion. The Great Quickening has commenced. Something big ugly and nasty this way comes. The events are worth emphasis, since each has enormous implications and fallout.
Russia jumped off the Petro-Dollar recycle wagon. Their entire oil trade will not be kept in USDollars. Instead, it will be exchanged immediately into Rubles. Expect some to be converted into RMB for their bilateral trade with China. The Russian action is an integral part of the demise of the Petro-Dollar. They react to US-led boycott.
The Swiss removed the 120 Euro peg to their Franc currency. For over three years their central bank had maintained a hoard of paper mache Euro currencies that accumulated perhaps as much as 800 billion Euros. It became unsustainable. They ran a long USDollar trade with short Gold, which finally will go into reverse. The Langley crew had billions in SWFrancs stuffed in shrink wrapped palettes. They profited handsomely. The Swiss seem to have opened the gates of hell for the Gold market, and might have been slammed with a Gold margin call as leased gold bullion dried up.
The Greeks have prepared to exit the European Union and to default on debt. Their defiant Syriza party won a mandate, a clear leftist majority. Next comes some severe disruption. They might print money to pay off their external debt, which would be an ironic justice. Expect great repercussions within Greece into Europe, at the same time the Russians are passing a gas pipeline as carrot to Greece. With the pipeline will come valuable fees to the Greek nation. They will leave the European Union, with almost certainty. They will soon export food products to Russia, lifting the economy.
The Euro Central Bank announced details on their newest QE tampering. They are to pile on the bond and asset purchases, with a clever attempt to avoid it being corrosive unsterilized by means of cooperative gestures with member nations. Regardless of the details, the Germans are harsh critics of the Draghi procedures. The opposition has shaped up between the EuroCB and the Bundesbank. The Jackass is certain that Germany will leave the EU, leave the common Euro, and eventually leave NATO. The objection to the Draghi QE decision will lead to a major crisis in the European Union.
King Abdullah died and the transition for the royal family begins. He has been replaced by formerly crown prince Salman, who suffers from senile dementia, and will have a terrible time to hold power. The battle for succession has just begun, as rival tribes vie for power, after several decades of being excluded. The events inside Saudi boundaries will increase, turn more violent, and be highly disruptive. Pressure for reform will be fierce and unending.
Merkel has offered a trade union proposal to Russia, which discards the US-led TTIP trade pact. At the Davos Economic Summit, the German Chancellor actually offered a trade pact with Russia which implicitly rejected the US-led TransAtlantic Trade & Investment Partnership. The ironic part is that Merkel has proposed exactly what Russia & China have been developing for two years, known as the Eurasian Trade Zone. Germany is looking for a way out of the European Union.
The German watchdog financial cop BaFin found no improper manipulation in the gold market. They mean from the DeutscheBank perspective. This decision is a setback for the camp that opposes corrupt markets in bond values, currency exchange rates, bank accounting. The backlash could come from numerous flanks, all of which seek justice and fair markets. Market rigging seems never to cease as the climax nears. In Germany, two camps are divided. The politicians are dominated by the banker elite, although loud rumblings come from the ministers levels. The industrial captains manage commerce, and wish to avoid profound economic damage. The US alliance is no longer working toward German benefit. The industrial camp will prevail, but with a huge battle and many unknowns to come.
The Swiss have set up a major RMB trading center in Zurich. An interesting competition is certain to unfold as London, Zurich, and Frankfurt compete for Chinese financial flow in RMB terms. Refer to currency exchange, bond issuance, and direct investment (FDI). While London has the tradition and Zurich has the prestige, the Germans have been hand-picked by the Kremlin and Beijing to serve as the cradle and crucible for European linkage to Asia. The industrial ties to Russia and China extend from Germany, along with huge and growing trade and investment.
The details for Gazprom pipeline extension through Turkey have been revealed, by way of the Black Sea, with volume stated in the plans. In a brilliant stroke, Gazprom decided abruptly to cut off Ukraine on the pipeline construction. It will not pass through Eastern Europe, where USGovt bribery, threats, and corrupt business plans were taking place to block plans. Instead, the pipeline will pass through Turkey, with announced hub on the Greek border. It is being dubbed Turk Stream. The construction will take at least 18 months. In the meantime, the European nations will have to struggle to find a way to connect to its gas lines, and to avoid wreckage from their errant destructive US alliance.
The USEconomy had an enormous miss in expected Durable Good orders. The list of job cuts and project cutbacks in the US, Canadian, British, and European Economies was six pages in length for a recent work toward the January Hat Trick Letter. It was refined to a few pages. It is a veritable procession of business failure from failed monetary and economic policy failure. The USEconomy is stuck in a multi-year powerful recession. QE aggravates the economic deterioration. Numerous major name corporations are making utterly huge astonishing job cuts, the most recent being IBM. Big banks and energy related firms dominate in such news.
Events are flowing extremely rapidly, even at a dizzying pace. It is not remotely possibly to anticipate the next critical event, but one can surely expect something every two to three days recently, something of urgent important with extreme consequence. In addition to the above events, the US & Canadian shale oil & gas sector is shutting down, without a single event to point to. The shale subprime debt implosion is imminent, already have triggered. The damage will be progressively worse over time. The 2015 year is off with a very unstable bang, exactly as expected. Notice that none of the above events pertain to the BRICS Alliance. Their movement will enforce the Global Paradigm Shift to bring about a return of the Gold Standard. Since the US-UK bankers control the financial sector in FOREX currencies and sovereign bonds and banking systems, the East will make steadfast progress in bring back the Gold Standard from the trade ramps. Details to above events, the universal disruption, and the BRICS initiatives are covered in the Hat Trick Letter.
King Dollar Pillar Breakdown
With the acceleration of events in progress and in view, the pressures will grow against the entire King Dollar Court, the corrupt fortresses in Wall Street and London Centre, the crime syndicate hive. The USDollar will not survive the year. It might not vanish this year, but will surely show its eventual destination in the dustbin of history. The four legs of the Petro-Dollar might be described as being the banking system, the FOREX currencies, the sovereign bonds, and crude oil.
a) After the Lehman killjob crisis failure, the banking system turned insolvent. Thanks to the FASB accounting rules that were bent, the banks have continued as hollow reed pillars. They have been on the one side been settling law suits and investor claims, while on the other side been kept liquid by means of narco money laundering (confirmed by the United Nations). If one big Western bank enters failure, the entire set of big banks will risk failure simultaneously in direct contagion.
b) The major currencies are in a grand disruption right here right now. The rush into the USD for settling derivatives and as safe haven has rattled the FOREX worse than at any time in recent history, perhaps including the 1995 Asian Meltdown. The emerging market debt involves several $trillion in volume, all of which rose on the balance for the debt burden. Defaults lie directly ahead. The USEconomy will be greatly victimized by the higher USD valuation, with respect to stock and property investments, in addition to export trade.
c) The sovereign bonds are being supported by Quantitative Easing, the highly corrosive monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Other central banks had been well coordinated at the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. If not direct money printing, it is their usage of Dollar Swap Facilities. In the last couple months, evidence has grown that the major central banks are on their own, acting to preserve their economies, and taking action with local motive. The USGovt raided the Japanese $1.2 trillion pension fund. The Swiss ensured that all nations will break the coordinated monetary policy with the USFed.
d) The connection between the USDollar and Crude Oil price has been broken, in ways not described or reported in the press. A vast system of FOREX derivatives are being dissolved that connect to the Crude Oil price, resulting on lost control. The rising USD and falling oil price is evidence of the breakdown. The relationship between the USGovt and the Saudis has deteriorated to alarming levels, despite the photo ops on display to deceive. The Saudis have been working on monthly conferences with the Beijing leaders, in what could be called a lovefest for economic cooperation and financial joining at the oil hip. The Saudis and other Gulf Emirate nations will be working to convert their combined $2.2 trillion in sovereign wealth funds into diversified assets, led by Gold. These Arabs will work to replace their Gold bullion stolen in Swiss banks.
USdollar Death Foretold
The high exchange rates seen to favor the USDollar does not mean it is strong. The global movement in fast clear trend is the wider usage of Chinese RMB. On at least 20 different bilateral conduits, the Chinese trade is almost exclusively done in RMB terms. The Yuan Swap Facility with numerous nations like Australia and New Zealand, lately Switzerland, Germany, and Canada, and several smaller Asian nations assures steadily higher RMB trade settlement. Even US corporations are fast converting USDollars to RMB which assure their import supply lines. The standard of USD trade settlement is going away.
The USDollar is dying like a rocket, shooting upward. Methinks the Petro-Dollar linkages are all broken. As a result, the USD rises, and correspondingly oil falls. Most people attach motive to the price movement. Doing so is erroneously. Instead, the price mechanisms are broken, predominantly a structural effect across most financial markets in an alarming development. The lost control is being manifested in a higher USDX index. It is paradoxically evidence of a dying King Dollar and a failure of its court.
Huge pressures are building. The year 2015 will be when the system openly breaks down, when steadfast US allies break ranks from the King Dollar Court, and work to enable their nations to survive. The year 2015 will be when the entire world (East & West) openly calls for the retirement of the USDollar in order to end the destruction, fraud, madness, war, and chaos. The USFed with its corrosive QE has hastened the major nations of the world to rush toward implementation of the Gold Standard. They must install it from the trade ramps, not the financial ramps. They are in race with time, since their economies are faltering.
Mahatma Gandhi was a sage. He has a famous quote best presented in summary form. "Seven Deadly Sins: Wealth without work, Pleasure without conscience, Science without humanity, Knowledge without character, Politics without principle, Commerce without morality, Worship without sacrifice." Without any hesitation, equivocation, or doubt, all these important sins are growing trends and priorities in modern United States.
London Paul summarized well the current path of disruption and powerful change. "The so-called experts have thrived in a world which was all about obfuscation. As this paradigm collapses, they are desperately trying to hang onto a totally failed construct and refuse to accept the reality of what is coming. The alternative terrifies them to their very core. Greece was a clear indication that the masses are waking up in significant numbers to the insanity of a cabal agenda of death, destruction, and grand larceny all wrapped as being in our best interests. When I have spoken before about a time which will be savage and uncompromising, it was in my opinion a realistic assessment of what is coming. However, when we get through the other side, the world will transform out of recognition and in ways that would seem impossible from our current frame of reference. So we continue to accumulate Gold & Silver to protect ourselves against the financial carnage that is coming. Humanity is going to go through a very sharp learning curve and will have to work together for common goals and aspirations as it should always have been. Necessity is the mother of invention and we will all have to go through that process of total reinvention. The level of ruthless manipulation to divide and conquer humanity for decades and beyond will become clear and it will truly shock humanity."
Gold Rally In Foreign Currency
The gold market is rallying in the Yen terms, in the Euro terms, and in the CanDollar terms. The Swiss have ignited a global gold rally. They very likely covered a short gold position in a complex arbitrage trade. Notice the gold price decline from the $1900/oz level began at about the same time the Swiss announced their Euro 120 peg in late 2011. Notice the gold reversal has begun exactly at the time of the Swiss de-peg decision. It might be easy to conclude that the Swiss National Bank financed their Euro peg by crushing the Gold market. In the three and a half years during their peg, the gold price lost one third of its value on the corrupt COMEX market. With the Swiss lit fuse, no turning back. The reversals are significant. In Switzerland, the people have been given a hefty gold price discount due to the rising SWFranc currency. The Gold price in USD terms will be the last event, the ultimate event in confirmation.
Hungary Both Smart & Hot Spot
The Jackass has no problem admitting an error. They can be valuable learning opportunities. The last big error was made in expecting a higher USTreasury Bond yield in 2011. Big error indeed, as the learning curve featured forced comprehension of the powerful Interest Rate Swap derivatives. With Morgan Stanley putting on $8.5 trillion in IRSwaps in a mere six months time going into end 2010, the USTreasurys rallied with rising price and falling yield. This contrary event occurred despite greater USGovt debt, fewer USTBond investors, and a debt rating downgrade. The paradox is explained with the vast IRSwap machinery. Thanks to Rob Kirby, the Jackass learned more about the derivatives and the fabricated bond demand from computers, managed by JPMorguen. Too bad Bill Gross of PIMCO did not hire Kirby as a consultant.
The latest error is minor, but interesting. The Jackass had stated recently in reports that Poland, Hungary, and other Eastern European nations were all exposed to home mortgages in Swiss Franc denomination. With a rising SWFranc exchange rate, their aggregate mortgage debt balances will be damaged from having risen in amount. They will have a higher debt burden suddenly. The Polish are exposed. However, in a three step process, the Hungarians side stepped the risk in a very clever adept maneuver. The Orban Admin forced the banks to convert all foreign currency denominated property mortgages into Hungarian Forint (HUF) mortgages. Note that the switcharoo took place just a couple of months before the Swiss central bank de-peg. The HUF is not pegged to any currency including the USDollar or Euro. The correction was given by a sharp Hungarian Hat Trick Letter client, who has been valuable not only with respect to matters pertaining to his country like the South Stream Gazprom pipeline project, but also to events in nearby Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orban might be at risk. He has fended off the USGovt fascist pressures to block the Gazprom pipeline. He has gone on an independent path. He might be a Langley target. Maybe Budapest will be treated to some public shootings or explosions by yet more lone gunmen, like in Paris following the President Hollande comments in opposition to continued Russian sanctions.
People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money.
The crisis is better described as the Global Monetary War. Any nation wishing to establish trade or a monetary system centered upon gold is branded a rogue nation, subject to extreme propaganda. This is precisely why Russia is being vilified, since they want no more USDollar in trade or banking, and lead a global movement to discard the USD as global reserve currency. The solution is with precious metals as the core to banking, trade, and currency, even wealth preservation. The new 2015 year will be exciting. As the Jackass forecasted, 2014 did indeed end much differently from the way it began. The agents of change are working at hyper-speed now. The USDollar is doomed, and its captains are running for their lives. They are not worth bargaining with in magnanimous cut deals. Better to treat them like fire ants and bothersome fleas and diseased rodents and rabid dogs. The return of Gold to its primacy is long overdue.
The Hat Trick Letter profits in the current crisis.
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Jim Willie CB, editor of the “Hat Trick Letter”
Will Lehr of Perpetual Assets Interviews Jim Willie
February 2, 2015 | Perpetual Assets
My buddy the Golden Jackass is back, diving deep into the abyss of all matters financial and geopolitical. Join us for well over an hour of analyzation of the events of today.
In the first half of the interview we cover the 10 most critical developments of 2015, and it’s only February. Typically any one of these events would be big enough to make annual headlines. These have all occurred in a matter of 3 weeks!Jim makes a big call regarding Germany’s ‘stance’ in the dollar demise.
We cover everything from underwater prisons to new energy technology. The doctor even gives us a lesson on statistical probability as it pertains to global collapse events and government propaganda statistics. From Greek pipelines to the Shemitah cycle of financial crises we cover broad topics with just enough depth to engage your curiosity. 2015 Bombshell events listed in chronological order:
Russia jumped off the Petro-Dollar recycle wagon
The Swiss removed the 120 Euro peg to their Franc currency
The Greeks have prepared to exit the European Union and to default on debt
The Euro Central Bank announced details on their newest QE tampering
King Abdullah died and the transition for the royal family begins
Merkel offered a trade union proposal to Russia, which discards the US-led TTIP trade pact
The German watchdog financial cop BaFin found no improper manipulation in the gold market
The Swiss have set up a major RMB trading center in Zurich
The details for Gazprom pipeline extension through Turkey have been revealed
The USEconomy had an enormous miss in expected Durable Good orders
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Looming Economic Collapse Scenarios facing the United States: Lessons from the Soviet Collapse
“They can’t really grasp the fact that everything they’ve built has stopped working, because their ideology forbids them from doing it. So that’s identical with what was going on in the Soviet Union.”
On the Global Research News Hour this week, we spend the hour discussing the looming collapse scenarios facing the United States with Russian-American engineer Dmitry Orlov.