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Japanese Government Finally Divulges What It Has Been Hiding: SPEEDI Radiation Simulations from March 12

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(UPDATE) The earliest simulation was done at 4:00PM on March 11, assuming the leak of radioactive materials started at 4:00PM. (To see the simulation, go to the bottom of the post.)

Now, after more than 50 days and after so much contamination of soil, water, air and ocean with radioactive iodine, cesium, strontium, plutonium, americium, curium, among other yet to be disclosed nuclides that have exposed the residents in Japan to heightened internal and external radiations, the Japanese government simply dumps the SPEEDI simulation data on the Ministry of Education’s website.

What is, really, the point of telling us now? To say… what? They’re sorry that they didn’t tell you about the simulation when the radioactive materials were coming at 10,000 terabecquerels/hour and they knew it but were afraid people would freak out? I suppose the people in the administration and in the government would rather have a significant increase in cancer and other illnesses several decades down the line, because by that time they may be no longer in the government or no longer in this world.

The SPEEDI simulation data is here (in Japanese only):

The earliest simulation that has been disclosed at the site is the simulation done on March 12 for the period from 3:00AM March 12 to 3:00AM March 13. The simulation assumed the accident of the Reactor 1. At 2:48AM on March 12, the pressure inside the Pressure Vessel of the Reactor 1 rose significantly, so whoever was in charge of SPEEDI did conduct a simulation assuming the Reactor 1 would blow. Looking at the simulation, it is clear that they assumed the wind direction to be offshore (west by northwest), and most of the radioactive materials would blow over the Pacific Ocean.

However, by the next simulation for 10:00AM to 8:00PM on March 12, the prevailing wind direction forecast shifted over time from northwest to east by southeast to south, resulting in the simulation that forecasts wide dispersion of radioactive iodine inland. The simulation chart below is the internal radiation exposure at the thyroid gland of a 1-year old by inhaling radioactive iodine:

After the Reactor 1 blew up, they even created the simulation for wider area, which shows they predicted the rapid expansion of the radioactive materials well north of Minami-Soma City and reaching Soma City (0ver 40 kilometers away from Fukushima I Nuke Plant), on a prevailing strong wind from the south. This is the simulation chart for the air radiation level, from 6:00PM to 8:00PM on March 12:

Prompt disclosure of such simulations could have made a huge difference. If the initial simulation when the pressure got high in the Reactor 1 of Fukushima I Nuke Plant had been disclosed, then the people in the immediate vicinity of the plant could have evacuated in a more orderly way instead of in a panic after the Reactor 1 blew up.

Professor Toshiso Kosako, who quit the job as the PM’s special advisor in protest of the government response to the Fukushima I accident, said in his resignation statement that there was another program called WSPEEDI, which can cover much wider area (“several thousand kilometers”, according to Professor Kosako). WSPEEDI can probably cover the entire Japan (except for outlying islands).

The Japanese government is still sitting on WSPEEDI simulations, if any exists as Professor Kosako says.


THE EARLIEST SIMULATION DONE WAS AT 4:00PM ON MARCH 11, and that simulation is posted at the Nuclear Safety Agency’s site, not at Ministry of Education site. It assumes a minor accident (because they only forecast noble gas to spread) at the Reactor 1. The simulation chart is the air radiation level from 4:00 PM to 5:00PM on March 11:

Japanese Government Finally Divulges What It Has Been Hiding: SPEEDI Radiation Simulations from March 12


Written by testudoetlepus

May 4th, 2011 at 3:33 pm

Fairewinds: U.S. News Outlets Said There’s “No Threat To Health” From Fukushima . . . The Opposite of What All The Studies Say About Radiation and Cancer

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Epidemiologist, Dr. Steven Wing, Discusses Global Radiation Exposures and Consequences with Gundersen from Fairewinds Associates on Vimeo.

Epidemiologist, Dr. Steven Wing and nuclear engineer, Arnie Gundersen, discuss the consequences of the Fukushima radioactive fallout on Japan, the USA, and the world. What are the long-term health effects? What should the government(s) do to protect citizens?

Transcript Summary

1:45: We heard from news media that there’s “no threat to health” from Fukushima… this flies in the face of what all the models and studies say about radiation and cancer… Perhaps media was talking about acute risk.

7:25: As a collective group we should be concerned there will be cancers, but there is not much to do about it.

Read more:

Fairewinds: US news outlets said there’s “no threat to health” from Fukushima… The opposite of what all the studies say about radiation and cancer (VIDEO)

[Energy News]

Written by testudoetlepus

April 22nd, 2011 at 4:04 pm

“The Government Doesn’t Care If You’re Going To Have A Few Extra Cases of Cancer”

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Citizen Monitors Keep A Wary Eye On Radiation And Government, Forbes blog of Jeff McMahon, April 20, 2011:

… [Don] Curry, 72, works for the Desert Research Institute’s Community Environmental Monitoring Program [recording data and collecting air filters], …

Scientists from the Desert Research Institute, an arm of the University of Nevada Las Vegas, analyze the filters and data…

The Department of Energy funds the program, but Curry can vouch for the numerical data because he collects it himself. …

“The government doesn’t care if you’re going to have a few extra cases of cancer,” Curry said. “It’s like they’re saying, ‘We’re going to take that hill—we’re going to have 50 percent casualties, but get your butt up that hill.’” …

Read the report here.

See the Community Environmental Monitoring Program’s Preliminary Air Sampling Results here.

CEMP Contact Page:

U.S. Department of Energy
Nevada Operations Office
Office of Public Affairs and Information
P.O. Box 98518
Las Vegas, Nevada 89193-8518
Phone (702) 295-3521
Fax (702) 295-0154


Desert Research Institute
755 East Flamingo Road
Las Vegas, Nevada 89119
Phone (702) 862-5419
Fax (702) 862-5326

“The government doesn’t care if you’re going to have a few extra cases of cancer” says worker for monitoring program funded by US Dept. of Energy

[Energy News]

Written by testudoetlepus

April 20th, 2011 at 9:22 pm

Scientists Say Northern One-Third of Japan is Uninhabitable

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In an interview with Alfred Webre, Leuren Moret highlights two prominent nuclear radiation scientists who have now publicly declared that the northern 1/3 part of Japan has become uninhabitable because of radiation due to the Fukushima March 11, 2011 quake/nuke false flag operation, and should be evacuated. One of the radiation experts, Dr. Chris Busby, is a UK Govt. and European Parliament Low Level Radiation Expert. Dr. Busby developed the first radiation risk model to challenge the US government’s Hiroshima and Nagasaki studies model that underestimated internal exposure risk by a factor of 1000. Dr. Busby has conducted research on Sellafield nuke plant contamination and health risks, depleted uranium exposures in the Middle East, Yugoslavia, C. Asia, and Fukushima disaster.

The other radiation expert, Marion Fulk, is a Manhattan Project scientist who made the US hydrogen bomb work. Mr. Fulk was the radiation rainout/snowout expert for the US nuclear weapons program during atmospheric testing. He has trained and mentored Leuren Moret for 11 years on radiation issues such as the environmental and biological effects of ionizing radiation. In a March 30, 2011 interview on Russia Today with Dr. Chris Busby. Dr. Busby declared that the Fukushima nuclear plant meltdowns will result in at least 417,000 new cancers.

Scientists Say Northern One-third of Japan is Uninhabitable

[Conscious Life News]

Written by testudoetlepus

April 8th, 2011 at 5:02 pm

Tokyo Electric To Build US Nuclear Plants: The No-BS Info On Japan’s Disastrous Nuclear Operators

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for Truthout/Buzzflash

by Greg Palast

Texas plants planned by Tokyo Electric. Image:NINA

I need to speak to you, not as a reporter, but in my former capacity as lead investigator in several government nuclear plant fraud and racketeering investigations.

I don’t know the law in Japan, so I can’t tell you if Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) can plead insanity to the homicides about to happen.

But what will Obama plead?  The Administration, just months ago, asked Congress to provide a $4 billion loan guarantee for two new nuclear reactors to be built and operated on the Gulf Coast of Texas — by Tokyo Electric Power and local partners.  As if the Gulf hasn’t suffered enough.

Here are the facts about Tokyo Electric and the industry you haven’t heard on CNN:

The failure of emergency systems at Japan’s nuclear plants comes as no surprise to those of us who have worked in the field.

Nuclear plants the world over must be certified for what is called “SQ” or “Seismic Qualification.”  That is, the owners swear that all components are designed for the maximum conceivable shaking event, be it from an earthquake or an exploding Christmas card from Al Qaeda.

The most inexpensive way to meet your SQ is to lie.  The industry does it all the time. The government team I worked with caught them once, in 1988, at the Shoreham plant in New York.  Correcting the SQ problem at Shoreham would have cost a cool billion, so engineers were told to change the tests from ‘failed’ to ‘passed.’

The company that put in the false safety report?  Stone & Webster, now the nuclear unit of Shaw Construction which will work with Tokyo Electric to build the Texas plant, Lord help us.

There’s more.

Last night I heard CNN reporters repeat the official line that the tsunami disabled the pumps needed to cool the reactors, implying that water unexpectedly got into the diesel generators that run the pumps.

These safety back-up systems are the ‘EDGs’ in nuke-speak: Emergency Diesel Generators.  That they didn’t work in an emergency is like a fire department telling us they couldn’t save a building because “it was on fire.”

What dim bulbs designed this system?  One of the reactors dancing with death at Fukushima Station 1 was built by Toshiba.  Toshiba was also an architect of the emergency diesel system.

Now be afraid. Obama’s $4 billion bail-out-in-the-making is called the South Texas Project.  It’s been sold as a red-white-and-blue way to make power domestically with a reactor from Westinghouse, a great American brand.  However, the reactor will be made substantially in Japan by the company that bought the US brand name, Westinghouse — Toshiba.

I once had a Toshiba computer.  I only had to send it in once for warranty work.  However, it’s kind of hard to mail back a reactor with the warranty slip inside the box if the fuel rods are melted and sinking halfway to the earth’s core.

TEPCO and Toshiba don’t know what my son learned in 8th grade science class: tsunamis follow Pacific Rim earthquakes. So these companies are real stupid, eh?  Maybe.  More likely is that the diesels and related systems wouldn’t have worked on a fine, dry afternoon.

Back in the day, when we checked the emergency back-up diesels in America, a mind-blowing number flunked.  At the New York nuke, for example, the builders swore under oath that their three diesel engines were ready for an emergency. They’d been tested.  The tests were faked, the diesels run for just a short time at low speed.  When the diesels were put through a real test under emergency-like conditions, the crankshaft on the first one snapped in about an hour, then the second and third.  We nicknamed the diesels, “Snap, Crackle and Pop.”

(Note:  Moments after I wrote that sentence, word came that two of three diesels failed at the Tokai Station as well.)

In the US, we supposedly fixed our diesels after much complaining by the industry. But in Japan, no one tells Tokyo Electric to do anything the Emperor of Electricity doesn’t want to do.

I get lots of confidential notes from nuclear industry insiders.  One engineer, a big name in the field, is especially concerned that Obama waved the come-hither check to Toshiba and Tokyo Electric to lure them to America.  The US has a long history of whistleblowers willing to put themselves on the line to save the public. In our racketeering case in New York, the government only found out about the seismic test fraud because two courageous engineers, Gordon Dick and John Daly, gave our team the documentary evidence.

In Japan, it’s simply not done.  The culture does not allow the salary-men, who work all their their lives for one company, to drop the dime.

Not that US law is a wondrous shield:  both engineers in the New York case were fired and blacklisted by the industry.  Nevertheless, the government (local, state, federal) brought civil racketeering charges against the builders. The jury didn’t buy the corporation’s excuses and, in the end, the plant was, thankfully, dismantled.

Am I on some kind of xenophobic anti-Nippon crusade?  No.  In fact, I’m far more frightened by the American operators in the South Texas nuclear project, especially Shaw. Stone & Webster, now the Shaw nuclear division, was also the firm that conspired to fake the EDG tests in New York. (The company’s other exploits have been exposed by their former consultant, John Perkins, in his book, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man.)
If the planet wants to shiver, consider this:  Toshiba and Shaw have recently signed a deal to become world-wide partners in the construction of nuclear stations.

The other characters involved at the South Texas Plant that Obama is backing should also give you the willies.  But as I’m in the middle of investigating the American partners, I’ll save that for another day.

So, if we turned to America’s own nuclear contractors, would we be safe?  Well, two of the melting Japanese reactors, including the one whose building blew sky high, were built by General Electric of the Good Old US of A.

After Texas, you’re next.  The Obama Administration is planning a total of $56 billion in loans for nuclear reactors all over America.

And now, the homicides:

CNN is only interested in body counts, how many workers burnt by radiation, swept away or lost in the explosion.  These plants are now releasing radioactive steam into the atmosphere. Be skeptical about the statements that the “levels are not dangerous.”  These are the same people who said these meltdowns could never happen.  Over years, not days, there may be a thousand people, two thousand, ten thousand who will suffer from cancers induced by this radiation.

In my New York investigation, I had the unhappy job of totaling up post-meltdown “morbidity” rates for the county government.   It would be irresponsible for me to estimate the number of cancer deaths that will occur from these releases without further information; but it is just plain criminal for the Tokyo Electric shoguns to say that these releases are not dangerous.  Indeed, the fact that residents near the Japanese nuclear plants were not issued iodine pills to keep at the ready shows TEPCO doesn’t care who lives and who dies whether in Japan or the USA. The carcinogenic isotopes that are released at Fukushima are already floating to Seattle with effects we simply cannot measure.

Heaven help us.  Because Obama won’t.


Greg Palast is the co-author of Democracy and Regulation, the United Nations ILO guide for public service regulators, with Jerrold Oppenheim and Theo MacGregor. Palast has advised regulators in 26 states and in 12 nations on the regulation of the utility industry.

Palast, whose reports can be seen on BBC Television Newsnight, is a Puffin Foundation Writing Fellow for investigative reporting.

Subscribe to Palast’s Newsletter and podcasts at

Tokyo Electric to Build US Nuclear PlantsThe no-BS info on Japan’s disastrous nuclear operators

[Greg Palast]

Written by testudoetlepus

March 15th, 2011 at 5:59 pm