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Russia & China Will Not Defend Iran

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February 9, 2012
Joel Skousen joins Dr. Monteith on Radio Liberty. Joel says that we won’t see a devaluation of currency and a hyperinflation scenario in the coming years because the Powers That Be can still create a lot of money while maintaining a low inflation rates because the money they create resides only in the banks computers and hardly ever hits the markets and hence does not impact the man on the street and the prices of goods unless the government decides to start writing bailout checks for every household , Joel also talks about the impeding war with Iran stating that it is unlikely that we will see China or Russia taking the side of Iran in case of a NATO attack against this country…..

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Written by testudoetlepus

February 14th, 2012 at 6:00 pm

James Dines: The Coming ‘Supernova of Inflations’

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James Dines has been in the business of making bold calls for over 50 years. In this deep-diving interview, he minces no words about the dire risks the US economy – and the world at large – faces at this juncture.

Simply put, he sees the excessive credit in the financial system as having placed the global economy on a collision-course with hyperinflation.

Unlike past periods of turmoil, there are no truly ‘safe’ places for investment capital to hide. Geographic markets and almost all asset classes are positively correlated these days. They share many of the same risks and if a systemic crash occurs, they will crash together.

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James Dines: Owning ‘Wealth In The Ground’ Is Your Best Bet to Surviving the Coming ‘Supernova of Inflations’

[Chris Martenson blogs]

No Exit For Bilderbergers

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by vidrebel

I see No Exit Strategy For The Bilderbergers in which they win and we lose at least in terms they would accept. I understood this day of impending economic collapse would come when I was 9 years-old and read a small book explaining debt based money.

When banks create a loan, they increase the Money Supply. If the government takes out a loan by selling a bond, it can print Federal Reserve Notes. If you take out a loan, the banker adds credit to your bank account. At the end of the year, you owe the banker an interest payment. But, since he only created the principal and not the interest, someone somewhere must take out another loan so we can all make our principal and interest payments. Over time rolling over those interest payments creates a Mountain of Unpayable Debts. This crushes economic activity. It also does do what it was designed to do which is to transfer all real wealth from those who created it to those who gave themselves the right to print our money.

As the Bilderbergers do understand the situation of the world economy, there are just two solutions. One is Austerity and the other is Hyperinflation. And we are doing both right now. Austerity transfers wealth from us to the Uber Rich by selling off public assets we paid for and canceling programs we paid for so we can make payments on a fictional debt. When Argentina was forced by the bankers to sell of its state owned oil company, the bankers paid 4 cents on the dollar a national resource. Austerity merely accelerates the transfer of all assets to the Bilderbergers.

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Green Shoots, Exit Strategy, No QE3

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by Jim Willie

It is not clear whether the American financial community has the ability to observe and conclude that the US Federal Reserve is adrift and relies upon deception as policy in revealing its directions. Its position is to hold steady, inflate to oblivion, support financial markets in heavy volume secretly, and lie about leaving its trapped policy corner. The USFed is a propaganda machine that deals with ruses as a substitute for transparent policy discussion in the public forum. Two years ago the ruse disseminated widely was the Green Shoots of an economic recovery that had no basis at all. The scorched earth showed more evidence of ruin than fresh business creation, at a time when the grotesque insolvency was spreading like a disease throughout the entire US financial system. On one hand the USFed was busy operating numerous credit and liquidity facilities in order to prevent systemic seizure, busily redeeming the Wall Street toxic bonds at the highest possible prices. On the other hand they were talking about Green Shoots, as insolvency spread across the big banks to the household equity. They lost their credibility in the process. They have lost it completely after two full years of 0% rates, the ultimate in central bank shame. The Jackass dismissed the Green Shoots ploy quickly, regularly, and correctly, as whatever little shoots were present probably the handiwork of ant colonies or termite hills, mistaking green insect feces, or even some toxic green runoff from a nearby financial office of a corporation.

One year ago the ruse disseminated widely was the Exit Strategy from the 0% monetary corner that had no basis at all. The USFed was well aware that 0% as an official rate was untenable, dangerous, and would produce different maladies. They promoted a phony story of a Jobless Recovery, an utter contradiction and bad joke played upon the American workers. To make the cost of money free encourages speculation in the most general systemic sense. The primary gold market fuel is the price of money being far below the current price inflation rate. Anyone who believes the CPI is actually 2% to 3% is braindead. Even USGovt statistics list the numerous categories with strong price increases, yet the overall CPI is lower than all components. Power to adjustments. My description has been that the USFed is stuck in the 0% policy corner. The corner has been described since the start of 2009 when it was instituted. If the USFed raises rates, they torpedo the housing market left as derelict adrift at sea, listing badly, taking on more water, weighed down by the inventory burden. Given that the USEconomy was so dependent upon housing for three or four years, and that dependence has turned to deep vulnerability, they cannot hike interest rates and exit the policy corner without sending home prices into a fast acceleration downward. They will bottom out 20% to 30% below construction costs.

Worse, a rate hike would trigger a credit derivative series of explosions from the Interest Rate Swaps. These queer devices hold down long-term rates far below the prevailing price inflation level. That is why the USFed Chairman Bernanke insists of an undying focus of the inflation expectations, the USTreasury Bond yields and TIPS yields (both of which they purchase in monetization operations). They control them using IRSwaps. If the USFed holds steady, as they must, they generate significant rising costs for everything from food to energy to metals to cotton. Even scraps (paper, metal, plastics) are rising in price. Even the toys sector must contend with fast rising prices in time for the Christmas season. See the Li & Fund effect, also called Foxconn in China. They also make i-Pods. The current path lifts the cost structure to such a level that both businesses and households are experiencing a pinch. The fast collapse of the Philly Fed index is testament to the pinch. Shelves at major retail chains are experiencing a slow decline in volume. It is called the profit squeeze. Business profit margins are shrinking, even as household discretionary spending funds are shrinking. The Jackass dismissed the Exit Strategy ploy quickly, regularly, and correctly, as the monetary policy corner was described consistently and clearly. It was a bluff, but a very bad one. It served as a litmus test to divide the financial analysts into two camps, the dumkopfs and the sage. The dumb analysts fell for it, based upon an idealistic belief that the 0% policy should end and the recovery was happening slowly. The savvy analysts did not fall for it, since the consequences of ending the 0% rate would be like suffocating your children in the middle of the night.

THE BIG RUSE & THE BIG BIND

The USFed is caught in a gigantic bind, cannot raise rates, and must endure the global price inflation problem that festers on the cost side of the equation. They busily deny their role in producing price inflation from debt monetization coupled with 0% rates. They lost more credibility in the process. They are the object of global anger and ridicule. They must hope that the eventual rate hike will keep the speculative juices from overflowing. Gold & Silver do not rest, as they brush aside such a plain ruse of a threatened rate hike. The sovereign bond situation in the entire Western World (with Japan adopted into the fold) is horrendous and worsening. The government deficits are out of control. Few analysts prefer to point out how the foundation for the global monetary system is supported by the gaggle of crippled sovereign bonds. To be sure, the Southern Europe debt is in a ruined state. But the debt of the United States is no better and the same for England, when viewed as annual debt ratio to total budget, when viewed as cumulative debt ratio to GDP (economic size). The graph below shows those two dimensions, and how the United States and United Kingdom are positioned among Spain, Ireland, and Greece, apart from the mass of nations. In the full year since this graph was produced, the US debt situation has grown worse. The reckless socialists seem prudent.

The extended PIIGS pen of nations, fully ruined and recognized widely as ruined, do not have the tools to prevent rising bond yields. They uniformly rise versus the German Bund benchmark. Their differentiation actually permits the Euro currency to trade more freely, even to rise. The Chinese were responsible for much of the Euro rise from 130 to 150, as they dumped USTBonds in favor of discounted PIGS debt, later to be converted into shopping malls, commercial buildings, and factories. Somehow, that factor did not appear on the US news networks. The USGovt has tools, wondrous electronic tools, which enable them at zero cost to fight off the barbarians at the gate. It is the Printing Pre$$. Unfortunately, its backfire is a powerful rising cost structure that has shown visibly in the high food & gasoline costs. So hardly at zero cost!! A year ago, the USFed folded like a cheap lawn chair. Instead of exiting their 0% corner, and implementing the advertised Exit Strategy, they went one step deeper down the rathole. That was exactly the Jackass forecast, QE to follow 0% stuck. They combined the ZIRP with the QE. They added the debt monetization scourge of Quantitative Easing to the already reckless no cost money of the Zero Interest Rate Policy. So they doused the national economy with gasoline only to see it lit into flames, while cutting the legs off the burning victim trying to escape.

PURE QE3 DECEPTION

The current ruse disseminated widely is the End of QE2 and no continuation of Quantitative Easing (aka debt monetization). The ruse has no basis at all in reality. The USFed would have to find buyers for the USTreasury Bonds. They have been buying 75% to 80% of USTBonds since the end of 2010. They have been supporting the US housing market by purchasing mortgage bonds. In other words, they have been preventing the more complete implosion of the mortgage market. It is one thing for the USTBond to go No Bid. The USFed has the direct responsibility to cover that up quickly and proclaim every USTreasury auction a rip-roaring success with great 2.3 bid to cover ratio. But it is another matter altogether to permit the mortgage rates to fly upward from lack of bids. If mortgage rates move to 7% or the adjustable ARM mortgages reset 3% to 4% higher suddenly, then housing prices will descend by another 10% to 15% quickly, as in with lightning speed.

Of course the USFed will have a QE3. Of course the USFed will continue QE programs. Of course the USFed will keep the funny money flowing into every type of bond market except the Municipal Bonds. The munis are not part of Wall Street and the syndicate that sprawls to cover the USGovt itself. So as the states and municipalities go further into a ruinous condition, events work within their grand plan to consolidate power in New York City, whose satellite in WashingtonDC was captured on a somber September day in 2001. The agenda for munis is so simple. They wish to kill the worker pensions, so that government workers have none, just like the general population. No home equity, no upward labor mobility, no union power, no pensions, a perfect world for the elite domination. Of course the USFed will keep pumping money into the stock market. With all the flash trading, still over 70% of all NYSE trade volume, with all the hardly hidden activity to support stocks by the Working Group for Financial Markets (aka Plunge Protection Team), the vulnerable stock market would dive like a cement rock. Perhaps the USFed wants to see the S&P500 and Dow Industrial stock indexes take a frightening dive. That would produce buyers of USTBonds, a point that the financial networks consistently fail to notice as motive for withdrawal of liquidity funds. The USFed can generate a USTBond rally easily, simply by stopping the stock support that so often lifts the stock indexes in the nick of time for late afternoon rallies, and johnny on the spot before early morning setbacks render too much damage.

Clearly, a sudden recognized slide in all things financial within the controlled US arenas would create perfect political cover for the USFed to announce QE3. The objections lodged from global creditors would be shouted down on the USCongress floors, on the New York Stock Exchange floor, in the big US bank board rooms, and the mutual fund chart rooms. The households would be torn in two opposite directions. They citizens want support for their stock accounts that include pension funds. But they do not want even higher costs for food, energy, and everything they purchase in retail centers. Strangely, perversely, the US stock market indexes are inversely correlated to the USDollar. The currency must resume its decline in order to lift the US stock market. Obviously, the S&P500 index rise is offset by lower US$ purchasing power, but the dynamic is ignored as much as possible. The correlation seems about minus 60% to 65% in a rough eye view.

The USFed will next spread fear from financial market powerful downdrafts. They will assure stock market declines. They will invite public response to lost mutual fund and pension funds (both managed and personal). They will work to shake the masses down to the point that the USCongress begs them to return to a strong powerful QE3. They will urge the USFed to make the QE3 even broader, to include Municipal Bonds. The big US banks will push the USFed to cover their mortgage bonds that are exposed to Put-Backs. The defrauded bond investors have won a skein of court cases. The story is so old that the US press does not cover court rulings against the devious MERS device. So the banks are losing from the bond table and losing from the foreclosure table. The US Federal Court in Texas found that MERS failed to address the issue of the legal effect of an assignment executed by unauthorized signers. The court also rebuked MERS, noting that the signing officer had no such authority, something that MERS should know. The court pointed out far more than mere negligence by MERS. Over 20,000 robo-signers were busy in the foreclosure process. They were not properly authorized. See the Naked Capitalism article (CLICK HERE). Home foreclosures are being reversed by the courts. Bonds are being ordered for putback to the Wall Street issuers. Exposure to the big US banks is huge, like well over $1 trillion. The USFed will be asked to lap up the toxic swill on court room floors.
GLOBAL QE

The very same factors that forced the emergency G-7 meeting to cap the Japanese Yen currency rise have returned. A high Yen exchange rate renders their vast supply industry as unprofitable, imposing great strain. Expect another emergency meeting, which in my view should be described as a Global Quantitative Easing (Global QE) since the major central banks will coordinate their actions to buy the vast tranches of USTreasury Bonds that Japan needs to sell. The large Japanese financial institutions must close their finance gaps and avoid price inflation. Doing so without asset sales would cause a pure unfiltered inflationary effect. They do not want additional woes in addition to what grotesque strain has already come. The exercise will be repeated, as the Jackass forecasted a month ago. My forecast is for a secret G-7 Meeting to agree to USTBond purchases to push down the Yen currency, but without any publicity, zero press coverage, all in total secrecy. It is a development factor far bigger than any QE conducted solely by the USFed. Since coordinated the world over, call it Global QE. Look for some distortion of purpose for any suddenly convened meeting of finance ministers. They might call it coordinated global monetary planning, or cooperation with emerging economies, or adjustments to global trade settlements, or some such deception. It is just another side to the Competing Currency Wars. The underlying force behind the rising Yen is their industrial slowdown, the arrival of a trade deficit, and the urgent need to finance reconstruction costs by foreign asset sales without causing price inflation. My analysis has called it the Global QE initiative, a factor far bigger than any QE conducted by the USFed.

Insurance companies will play a surprisingly large role. They face mammoth claims from damaged buildings and stalled factories. The large Japanese financial institutions must close their finance gaps and avoid price inflation from pure monetary inflation. Foreign asset sale is the key. Their deficit is growing, industry faltering, electricity supply spotty, supply chain unreliable, and US bond sales rising. The reconstruction is underway. The financial markets still need help. Their economy faces an unprecedented slowdown more accurately called a general coordinated breakdown. As the nation must pay for its reconstruction, expect big waves of bond sales to match big stimulus and monetization. Foreign asset sales will be the compromise made politically. Although palatable, they will cause the JapYen currency to rise further, enough to sound alarms and cause even more profit squeeze.

The Japanese Economy is enduring the biggest collapse in modern history. Let’s see if its cities can avoid cracks and rising tides. Their trade deficits are assured, my forecast. However, this time around a paradox of trade deficits and reconstruction costs will conspire to LIFT the Japanese Yen currency. Their government wants to limit stimulus and associated deficits and bond issuance that would lift interest rates. Their ministry officials want more debt monetization to inflate the problem away. The Bank of Japan wants to hold the line with no more purchase of debt. The utilities are forcing rolling electrical blackouts in order to avoid higher prices for electricity. Their carmakers have registered staggering declines in output. Their industrial sector is reeling. The solution most politically appealing will turn out to be not the hyper inflation from debt monetization, BUT RATHER SALES OF FOREIGN ASSETS. The sale of USTreasury Bonds is most politically acceptable, with a national disaster offering strong cover for justification. Their sale will be brisk in heavy volume, all in time. The rising JapYen currency will force the Global QE, as purchase of USTBonds that Japan sells will join the USTBonds sold by the USDept Treasury. An extravaganza of debt monetization will go global. Why no analysts discuss this is beyond the reach of Jackass comprehension. Probably blind spots, corporate directives, preoccupation with the sovereign debts, attention to the USGovt debt limit, and a new foreign war every few months. To be sure, plenty of distraction out there.

THREAT OF USGOVT DEBT DEFAULT

The cynic among us might have suspected that a mission directive for the Obama Admin was to force spending increases, to avoid entitlement benefit cuts, and to generally lead the nation into a worse insolvency condition so that the USDollar declines dangerously and a USGovt debt default is assured. The nation could start over. The elite plans could be implemented on a global level. To be sure, the Republicans object and block any and all new tax increases that would supposedly raise revenues. They would be counter-productive anyway, since higher tax rates result in lower tax revenues, something the legislators and economists have failed to comprehend for four decades. To be sure, the Democrats object and block any and all limitations to entitlement spending like Social Security, Medicare, and USGovt pensions. Any reductions would close the deficit a little, but more like a pittance. To be sure, the security agencies and bankers object and block any and all attempts to curtail the wars to seize crude oil and establish the vertical integration of contraband. Their purpose is considered sacred, while their costs are covered by taxpayers, but their profits are solely for the syndicate. The defense contractors are exemplary employers too, with high paying jobs but no trickle down effect on the product side.

It seems all three camps are dedicated to a path that results in debt strain, creditor revolt, and eventual default. Recall the Jackass forecast in September 2008, of a USTreasury debt default in the next two to three years. The time has finally come to deal with such a threat. The argument that the USDept Treasury together with the US Federal Reserve could avoid such a default outcome is being tested. For almost a full year, the USFed has been monetizing mountains of USGovt debt and much of the USAgency Mortgage debt. The effects have been noticed palpably at a global level. The blame has been attributed by nations across the world, and directed squarely at the USFed and USGovt for profligate spending, enormous deficits, and a hyper inflation reaction. All parties involved in the budget deliberations, the debt limit discussions, and the protection of interests are willing to test the default button option. The denials go so far as to describe a less than onerous outcome where much of the interest payments would continue, and much of the agency functions would continue. Strangely, the soldiers pay checks might be scrubbed. If a default occurs, traps doors and greased chutes would open to lead the nation on a fast track to the Third World. To begin with, liquidity would be harmed to such an extent that the Saudis would probably not accept USDollars for crude oil.

David Stockman served as the Budget Director in the Reagan Admin. He had some choice words in summary. He said, “The real problem is the de-facto policy of both parties is default. When the Republicans say no tax increases, they are saying we want the US government to default. Because there is not enough political will in this country to solve the problem even halfway on spending cuts. When the Democrats say you cannot touch Social Security, when you have Obama sponsoring a war budget for defense that is even bigger than Bush, then I say the policy of the White House is default as well. That is the question that really needs to be understood better and appraised by the bond market. Both parties are advocating default even as they point the finger at each other.”

NEW HAT TRICK LETTER REPORT

The Hat Trick Letter made a key change in the May reports. Since most every major systemic failure forecast recorded, explained, and repeated since 2004 has come true, and the USEconomy is in deterioration with a squeeze underway, and the US financial system is insolvent, and the US Housing market also suffers widespread negative equity (28.4% of homes), no great need or interest is served in delineating the home foreclosure statistics, the personal bankruptcies, bloated bank hidden inventory of unsold homes, the wrecked mortgage bond market, the jobless claims that cannot revive, or the banker games to conceal the reason why they lend little. Items do appear in the Introduction sections. Instead, the Macro Economic Report for the Hat Trick Letter has given way to the Global Money War Report for full discussion and analysis of the Competing Currency Wars, the debt soaked tattered sovereign bonds, the crumbling monetary system, the discredited central banks, and the acceptance of hyper monetary inflation as a solution. The Gold & Currency Report will continue, which covers the details at the ground level with many stories on investment demand, on exchange traded fund frauds (good and bad), on certain economic stories in beleaguered nations like Japan and Spain, like threats of default in nations like Greece, soon to be followed by other PIIGS nations, and details on the Chinese Economy.

So the Hat Trick Letter has adapted with a higher level gold report to cover the monetary war in progress, and a lower level gold report to cover the global reaction geared toward survival. That survival is assured by investment in Gold & Silver. The ugly irony is that the major financial news networks comprehend little if anything about the motives and principal factors behind the powerful precious metals bull market. They only focus on inflation (which they deny as part of the propaganda machine) and geopolitical tensions (which are valid but secondary). They overlook that the global monetary system is in ruins and the central banks have morphed into hyper inflation nuclear reactors, with the cost of money at zero acting like a foot stuck on the accelerator. They do not properly assess the monetary system ruin, nor the bank insolvency ruin.

GLOBAL FACTORS

The global monetary war has mushroomed. Greece is set to default on its debt, the signs all loud & clear. Spain is ready to be bailed out, its economy sliding backwards fast. The impact of a default in Europe is magnificent and all horrendous. Banks will fail. The motive for continued band-aid bailouts that only buy time and fix nothing have been to enable banks to redeem their debt, just like in the United States. Bond holders have been protected. Dominique Strauss-Kahn urged Irish Govt bond holders to take a significant haircut loss, his final sin. The first sin was the promotion of the SDR from the Intl Monetary Fund, whose basket of currencies would be used in global bank reserves. His second sin was the introductory concept of an SDR-based debt instrument, as in a global bond. To supplant the USDollar and USTBond is cause for removal, with bond holder losses the icing on the prison cake. The European kettle is ready to boil over again, with nothing fixed. The wild card is the Credit Default Swaps, those curious devices that lurk within hidden banking systems. A Greek Govt default would set events in motion, and likely reveal the profound fraud and insolvency of European banks. The kicker could be the contagion to the British and American banks. The Western banks are all interwoven in a grand incest.

A recent twist is the higher wages paid to Chinese workers almost uniformly. They will become stronger consumers, but their corporate exporters will pass along higher prices to the US retail chains. Finally, after thirty years, the USEconomy will import price inflation from Asia. The new Shanghai silver futures contracts are most likely not welcome to the COMEX and its Wall Street overseers. The common practice of ambushing the Gold & Silver prices overnight or immediately after hours in the late afternoon might soon come to an end. The Shanghai hours are 8pm to 11am eastern US time zone. Sense the opposition. Given the strong Chinese consumer price inflation and corresponding citizen response in coin and bar purchase, the opposition is gaining strength. The Asians love gold as much as the Americans are ignorant of it.

The population has reacted with continued Gold & Silver coin purchase. The central banks outside the Western sphere of influence have reacted with Gold bullion accumulation in reserves, far more than publicly announced. Mexico not only purchased almost 100 metric tons of gold recently, but their CB governors voted unanimously to install silver as money itself. The investment community has reacted with legitimate exchange traded funds like the Sprott Fund. The contrast of a Sprott premium in price versus the negative premium in the GLD and SLV should highlight their absence of required metal in inventory in stark contrast to the ample inventory in the Sprott funds, but most analysts have yet to figure out the premium issue at all. The biggest and most tainted ETFunds are working toward their own climax, surely with cash redemption amidst lawsuits. They cannot offer their inventory and shares to the COMEX as part of the great game, without eventual consequence. When the premium on GLD and SLV hits minus 10%, perhaps some will awaken. Usually vault fees, insurance costs, security costs, transport costs, and management results in actual totals that must be covered within the price paid for the shares. But not with this pair of polluted funds joined to the cartel.

ONLY CHANGE WITH SILVER IS PRICE

The silver speculation is just another deceptive story. The Open Interest fell gradually all through the Silver price rise toward the $50 level. After such a bone crushing silver ambush, the net positions for non-commercials, substracting shorts from longs, showed relative tranquility with no big decline at all in their positions, thus still a bullish commitment. They have fewer positions, but the game is still very much on. Hedge funds do show the lowest net long silver position since February 2010, but still a solid position. Evidence lies inside the Commitment of Traders Report, discussed in more detail in the May Hat Trick Letter. The Managed Money (like hedge funds, commodity trading accounts) still have a strong bullish position. They profited from the rise as they reduced positions, and were not wounded by the rise!! Then take the little guys. The Small Trader ledger item recorded the largest pure short position since August, with 18,605 contracts short silver on 26 April 2011, when silver had a $45.45 price. The smaller players were actually net short, and collected a hefty profit, a story not told by the lapdog US press. Conclude that many of the small guys, the good guys, were correctly positioned for the harsh smackdown on silver in the first week of May. The small speculators profited from decline!! They and the fund managers will be back, bigger than before, bolder than ever, motivated with fervor, with their ears taped back ready for more blood. It seems abundantly clear that the major driving force behind this current silver market has been actual demand for physical silver metal.

The beauty of the silver decline is that when it reverses, there is no technical resistance of significance back to the $50 level. However, due to the shock effect, the climb will be slower than a sudden technical mirror image reversal. The precious metals investors should hope for a slow steady relentless painful nasty stubborn awesome devastating rise in price that doles out excruciating pain to the cartel, permits once again for the less enlightened doubters to cover their wrong short positions in a chronic manner. The story in the Silver chart has four weeks and four different stories. The first week of May had the powerful decline, the result of hitting the Hunt nominal target, Soros putting out his deceptive story of selling that which he called a bubble for a full year, the COMEX raising the margin requirement five times in quick succession, the USFed putting out its deceptive story about ending debt monetization and maybe hiking rates (gotta be dumb as a post to believe), the USEconomy demanding less in commodities. The second week showed a strong clear Doji Star, which epitomizes a move to stability. The Silver price found its footing and stood still, encouraging many investors to re-enter the market. The third week was less clear except to technical chart readers. It featured a strong clear Bull Hammer identified by an open and close at the high for the week, with price movement lower during the week. The hint was given on Monday of this week for a rebound. The US$ DX index was rising a little, as the Euro currency was sliding  lower, like over 100 basis points for the day. Gold & Silver ignored it. Gold rose a little, while Silver was even at $35. Today, Silver is pushing $38 per ounce, and Gold is rising too. No resistance ahead!!

Yet the Mississippi flood waters will crimp supply lines just when the US financial dons wish to push down the entire commodity price structure, including Gold & Silver. Neither precious metal is a commodity though, since they are money. Tell the central banks of the world and the major sovereign wealth funds that Gold & Silver are commodities when they are shifting reserve assets away from the US$-based bonds and toward Gold & Silver. They are money, and the USGovt with their Wall Street handlers wishes the world not to regard them as money. The experiment in paper fiat money since 1971 is coming to an end, a conclusion racked with toxic spew, great hardship, and threats to wealth.

One should constantly remember that no solution to the financial crisis has been installed, nothing fixed, no big banks liquidated, no end to monetary inflation, no end to outsized USGovt deficits, no end to secretive subterranean support of stocks and bonds, no revival of the housing market, no discharge of big bank home inventory, no return of US industry from Asia, no interruption to the endless costly wars, no end to money laundering of narco funds to Wall Street banks, no end to the propaganda obediently pumped out by the US press & media networks, and no change of Goldman Sachs running the USGovt finance ministry. Expect no change in anything that you believe in. Expect no change to the 0% policy (ZIRP) with no change to the heavy monetary inflation (QE), as the path to ruin is set, and the policy of Inflate to Infinity cannot be stopped. Gold will not stop until it surpasses at least $5000 to $7000 in price. Silver will not stop until it surpasses at least $150 to $200 in price. Such forecasts invite mockery, but in two years they will seem prescient.

The ruin of money is the momentum play. The elite are fully invested in the current system, and are fully willing to put more money into reinforcements to preserve their wealth, power, and position. The global financial system is coming apart at the seams, and the financial guardians in charge from the syndicate cannot any longer hold it together. The Gold & Silver prices are the hint of lost control. Expect breathtaking grand upward moves in price in the  next several months. It will be fun to watch the dim bulbs explain their positions after their wrong viewpoints have been so well covered by the financial rags. They will surely squirm, guys like Soros. Some will gloat, guys like Sprott. Few are aware, but the events in the first week of May are what a COMEX default looks like, in its preliminary phase!!! JPMorgan could not meet the schedule of May silver deliveries, that simple. In time, the distance between paper Gold & Silver and physical Gold & Silver will be great. Then the COMEX shuts down, unless they act as a Cash & Carry exchange. Doubtful!

THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

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At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.

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GREEN SHOOTS, EXIT STRATEGY, NO QE3

[Investor Cafe]

50 Factors Launching Gold

without comments

by Jim Willie

Edification is not the word that comes to mind when observing an interview with Larry Fink of Blackstone this morning on network financial news. It was inspirational if not humorous, and somewhat pathetic. Of course the interviewer treated him like royalty, when just a syndicate captain, a Made Man. As a cog within the US financial hierarchy, he was asked why Gold is approaching record price levels near $1500 per ounce. He gave his best 10-second answer, showing no depth of comprehension but an excellent grip of propaganda laced with simplistic distortion. He said, “GOLD IS RISING FROM ALL THE GLOBAL INSTABILITY, AND NOT FROM INFLATION AT ALL.” Sounds good, but it lacks much reflection of the world of reality burdened by complexity and interconnectivity that the enlightened perceive. At least he did not babble about Gold being in an asset bubble. It cannot, since Gold is money. It is curious that all the analysts, bankers, fund managers, corporate chieftains who did not advise on Gold investment over the last ten years are precisely whom the financial network news appeals to for guidance in the current monster Gold bull run. They knew nothing before, and they know nothing now. The major US news networks carry the Obama water while the USCongressional members carry the USBanker robes and show respect with genuflection before the priests. But guys like Fink are their harlot squires. Poor Ben Bernanke, despite his high priest position, does not gather a fraction of respect that Alan Greenspan did even though Alan presided over the collapse. The wild card possibly later this year or 2012 will be a national movement to force mandatory wage gains, and thus avert a national economic collapse. The squeeze is on in a powerful manner to both businesses and households.

ANOTHER STRONG GOLD BREAKOUT

As long as Quantitative Easing programs are in place and actively pursued, Gold & Silver prices will soar. The programs are urged by exploding budget deficits and absent USTBond demand. That translates to a ruined USDollar currency. Gold & Silver respond to the debasement and ruin. Efforts will become ridiculously stretched to save the USDollar, but will fail. QE will go global and secretive, assuring tremendous additional gains in the Gold & Silver price. No effort to liquidate the big USbanks will occur, thus assuring the process will continue until systemic breakdown then failure. The more extraordinary the measures to save the embattled insolvent fraudulent USDollar, the more the Gold & Silver price will soar. It is that simple. Gold & Silver will soar as long as central banks continue to put monetary inflation machinery to work. They are attempting to provide artificial but coordinated USTreasury Bond demand. In the process their efforts will continue to push the cost structure up further. In my view, since the Japan natural disaster hit with financial fallout, the Global QE is very much in effect, but not recognized as a global phenomenon. It pushes up Gold in uniform fashion worldwide.

50 FACTORS POWERING THE GOLD BULL

1)      USFed is stuck at 0% for over two years and printing $1.7 trillion in Quantitative Easing, otherwise called monetary hyper inflation. They are not finished destroying both money and capital.

2)      USFed tripled its balance sheet, with over half of it bonds of exaggerated value, while it gobbled up toxic mortgage bonds as buyer of last resort. The mortgage bonds have turned worthless. The USFed waits for a housing revival to bail itself out, but it will not arrive.

3)      Debt monetization has gone haywire, as over 70% of USTBond sales from the USFed printing press. The QE was urgently needed, since legitimate buyers vanished. Even the primary dealers have been reimbursed in open market operations within a few weeks.

4)      PIMCO has shed its entire USTreasury Bond holdings, seeing no value. They joined many foreign creditors in an unannounced buyer boycott in disgusted reaction to QE which is essentially a compulsory unilateral debt writedown.

5)      Growing USGovt deficits have run over $1.5 trillion annually, with absent cuts, obscene entitlements, endless war. The prevailing short-term 0% interest rates are out of synch with exploding debt supply and rising price inflation.

6)      Unfunded USGovt liabilities total nearly $100 trillion for medicare, social security, pensions, and more. The obligations are never included in the official debt. It represents insult to injury within insolvency.

7)      Standard & Poors warned that USGovt could lose AAA rating in lousy credit outlook, one chance in three within the next two years. Ironically, the announcement came on the day when the USGovt exceeded its debt limit. The network news missed it.

8)      State & Municipal debt have collapsed, as 41 states have huge shortfalls, and four large states are broken. They might receive a federal bailout. It could be called QE3, maybe QE4.

9)      Coordinated USTBond purchases from Japanese sales have relieved the USFed, as other major central banks act as global monetarist agents. The sales by Japan are vast and growing. Witness the last phase in unwind of Yen Carry Trade, where 0% borrowed Japanese money funded the USTreasury Bonds and US Stocks.

10)  Quantitative Easing, a catch word for extreme monetary inflation and debt monetization, has become engrained into global central bank policy, soon hidden. It is so controversial and deadly to the global financial structures that it will go hidden, and attempt to avoid the furious anger in feedback by global leaders. This is the most important and powerful of all 50 factors in my view.

11)  The FedFunds Rate is stuck near 0%, yet the actual CPI is near 10%, for a real rate of interest of minus 9%. Historically a negative real rate of interest has been the primary fuel for a Gold bull. This time the fuel has been applied for a longer period of time, and a bigger negative real rate than ever.

12)  The USGovt claims to have 8000 tons of Gold in reserve, but it is all in Deep Storage, as in unmined ore bodies. The collateral for the USDollar and USTreasury debt is vacant. It is in raw form like in the Rocky Mountain range or Sierra Nevada range.

13)  Fast rising food prices, fast rising gasoline prices, and fast rising metals, coffee, sugar, and cotton serve as testament to broad price inflation. So far it has shown up on the cost structure. Either the business sector will vanish from a cost squeeze or pass on higher costs as end product and service price increases.

14)  The entire world seeks to protect wealth from the ravages of inflation & the American sponsored QE by buying Gold & Silver. The rest of the world can spot price inflation more effectively than the US population. The United States is subjected to the world’s broadest and most pervasive propaganda in the industrialized world.

15)  The European sovereign debt breakdown with high bond yields in PIIGS nations points out the broken debt foundation to the monetary system. The solutions like with Greece in May 2010 were a sham, nothing but a bandaid and cup of elixir. Spain is next to experience major shocks that destabilize all of Europe again, this time much bigger than Greece. The Portuguese Govt debt rises toward 10% on the 10-year yield, while the Greek Govt debt has risen to reach 20% on the 2-year yield.

16)  Germany is pushing for Southern Europe bank climax in their Euro Central Bank rate hike. Europe will be pushed to crisis this year, orchestrated by the impatient and angry Germans. They have no more appetitive for $300 to $400 billion in annual welfare to the broken nations in Southern Europe.

17)  Isolation of the USFed and Bank of England and Bank of Japan has come. The small rate hike by the European Central Bank separated them finally. The Anglos with their Japanese lackeys are the only central banks not raising rates. With isolation comes all the earmarks on the path to the Third World.

18)  The shortage of gold is acute, as 51 million gold bars have been sold forward versus the 11 million held by the COMEX in inventory. Be sure that hundreds of millions of nonexistent fractionalized gold ounces are polluting the system. Word is getting out that the COMEX is empty of precious metals.

19)  Such extreme Silver shortage has befallen the COMEX that the corrupted metals exchange routinely offers cash settlement in silver with a 25% bonus if a non-disclosure agreement is signed. The practice cannot be kept under wraps, as some hedge funds push for fat returns in under two months holding positions with delivery demanded.

20)  China has begun grand initiatives to replace its precious metal stockpiles. They are pursuing the Yuan currency to become a global reserve currency. As they build collateral for the Yuan, they are also elevating Silver as reserves asset.

21)  A global shortage of Gold & Silver has been realized in national mint production. From the United States to Canada to Australia to Germany, shortages exist. Many interruptions will continue amidst the shortages, which feed the publicity.

22)  The Teddy Roosevelt stockpile of 6 billion Silver ounces was depleted in 2003. He saw the strategic importance of Silver for industrial and military applications. The USEconomy and USMilitary will turn into importers on the global market.

23)  The betrayal of China by USGovt in Gold & Silver leases is a story coming out slowly. The deal was cut in 1999, associated with Most Favored Nation granted to China. But the Wall Street firms broke the deal, betrayed the Chinese, and angered them into highly motivated action. No longer are the Chinese big steady USTBond buyers, part of the deal also.

24)  Every single US financial market has been undermined and corrupted from grotesque intervention, constant props, and fraudulent activity. The degradation has occurred under the watchful eyes of compromised regulators. Fraud like the Flash Crash and NYSE front running by Goldman Sachs is protected by the FBI henchmen.

25)  The USEconomy operates on a global credit card, enabling it to live beyond its means. The USGovt exploits the compulsory foreign extension of credit in USTBonds, by virtue of the USDollar acting as global reserve currency. Foreign nations are compelled to participate but that is changing.

26)  The USMilitary conducts endless war adventures for syndicate profits. They use the USTreasury Bond as a credit card. The wars cost of $1 billion per day is considered so sacred, that it is off the table in USGovt budget call negotiations, debates, and agreements.

27)  Narcotics funds have proliferated under the USMilitary aegis. The vertically integrated narcotics industry is the primary plank of nation building in Afghanistan. The funds keep the big US banks alive from vast money laundering.

28)  No big US bank liquidations have occurred, despite their deep insolvency. Any restructure toward recovery would have the liquidations are the first step. The USEconomy is stuck in a deteriorating swamp since the Too Big To Fail mantra prevents the urgent but missing step.

29)  The unprosecuted multi-$trillion bond fraud over the last decade has harmed the US image, prestige, and leadership. The main perpetrators are the Wall Street bankers and their lieutenants appointed at Fannie Mae and elsewhere. They bankers most culpable remain in charge at the USDept Treasury and other key supporting posts like the FDIC, SEC, and CFTC.

30)  The ugly daughters Fannie Mae and AIG are forever entombed in the USGovt. They operate as black hole expenses whose fraud must be contained. The costs involved are in the $trillions, all hidden from view like the fraud. Fannie Mae remains the main clearinghouse for several $trillion fraud programs still in operation.

31)  The US banking system cannot serve as an effective credit engine dispenser, an important function within any modern economy. It is deeply insolvent, and growing more insolvent as the property market sinks lower in valuation. The banks lack reserves, and hide their condition by means of the FASB permission to use fraudulent accounting.

32)  The big US banks are beneficiary of continuous secret slush fund support from the USGovt and USFed. Their sources and replenishments have been gradually revealed. The TARP Fund event will go down in modern history as the greatest theft the world has ever seen, easily eclipsing the biggest mortgage bond fraud in history.

33)  The insolvent big US banks continue to sit at the  USGovt teat. The vast umbilical cord of banker welfare has not gone away. Goldman Sachs still is in control of the funding machinery.

34)  The shadow banking system based upon credit derivatives keeps interest rates near 0%. The usury cost of money is artificially low near nothing. As money costs nothing, capital is actively and rapidly destroyed.

35)  A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the USGovt. A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the USMilitary. A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the USCongress. A vast crime syndicate has taken control of the US press networks.

36)  A chronic decline of the US housing sector keeps the USEconomy in a grand decline with constant deterioration. With one million bank owned homes in inventory, a huge unsold overhang of supply prevents any recovery of housing prices. Home equity continues to drain, and bank balance sheets continue to erode.

37)  Over 11 million US homes stand in negative equity. The sum equals to 23.1% of households. They will not participate much in the USEconomy, except when given handouts. They have become downtrodden.

38)  The USEconomy will not benefit from a export surge. The US industrial base has no critical mass after 30 years of dispatch to the Pacific Rim & China. The industry must contend with rising costs in offset to the falling USDollar, which is cited as providing the mythical benefit. Then can export in droves if they do so at a loss.

39)  A global revolt against the USDollar is in its third years. The global players work to avoid the US$ usage in trade settlement. Several bilateral swap facilities flourish, mostly with China. If China supplies products, then the Yuan currency will be elevated to global reserve currency.

40)  Global anger and resentment over three decades has spilled over. The World Bank and IMF have been routinely used by the US bankers to safeguard the USDollar and Anglo banker hegemony. Neither financial agency commands the respect of yesteryear.

41)  A middle phase has begun in a powerful Global Paradigm Shift. The transfer moves power East where the wealth engines of industry lie, far from the fraudulent banking centers. The next decade will feature the Chinese as bankers, since their war chest contains over $3 trillion.

42)  The crumbling global monetary system was built on toxic sovereign debt. Legal tender has been nothing more than denominated debt posing as legitimate by legal decree. That is what word FIAT means. The system is gradually breaking in an irreversible manner.

43)  The global central bank franchise system has been discredited. It is a failure, which is not recognized by the bank leaders still in charge. The stepwise process of ruin continues with a new sector falling every few months. Next might be municipal bonds.

44)  Witness the final phase of a systemic cycle, as the monetary system has run its course. It is saturated with debt from faulty design. The deception cited in the mainstream media focuses upon the credit cycle which will renew. It will not. It will break of its own weight and lost confidence.

45)  The recognition has grown substantially that suppression of the Gold price has been the anchor holding fiat system together. The Chinese realize that Gold, when removed, leads to the collapse of the US financial system. They realize it more than the US public. But the syndicate in control of the USGovt understands the concept very well, as they designed the system.

46)  The institution of a high level global barter system might soon take root. Gold will sit at its central core, providing stability. No deadbeat nations will participate. That includes the United States and several European nations. The barter system will be as effective as elegant.

47)  The movements spread like wildfire in several US states to reinstitute gold as money. In a few states, led by Utah and Virginia, progress has been made for Gold to satisfy debts, public & private. Consider the movement to be in parallel to the Tenth Amendment movements.

48)  Anglo bankers have lost control in global banking politics. The phased out G-7 Meeting is evidence. China has wrested control of G-20 Meeting, and has dictated much of its agenda in the last few meetings. The US has been reduced to a diminutive Bernanke and Geithner being ignored in the corner.

49)  New loud stirrings by Saudi Arabia seek a new security protector. If security is no longer provided by the USMilitary, then the entire defacto Petro-Dollar standard is put at risk. Remove the crude oil sales in USDollars exclusively, and the US sinks into the Third World with a USDollar currency that cannot stand on its own wretched wrecked fundamentals.

50)  The IMF solution to use SDR basket as global reserve is a final desperate ploy. By fashioning a basket of major currencies in a basket, they attempt to enforce a price fixing regime. It is a hidden FOREX currency exchange rate price fixing gambit that will invite a Gold price advance in uniform manner across the currencies bound together. This ploy is being planned in order to prevent the USDollar from dying a horrible death at the expense of the other major currencies. By that is meant at the expense of the other major economies which would otherwise have to operate at very high exchange rates.

THE BIGGEST UPCOMING NEW FACTORS

Introduction of a New Nordic Euro currency is near its introduction. The implementation with a Gold component will send Southern European banks into the abyss, marred by default. The new currency has the support from Russia and China, even the Persian Gulf. In my view, it is a USDollar killer. The first nations to institute a new monetary system for banks and commerce will be the survivors. The rest will slide into the darkness of the Third World.

Gold & Silver seem to be the only assets rising in price, an extension of a terrific 2010 decade. The exceptions are farmland and the US Stock market. However, stock valuations are propped by constant and admitted USGovt support. Their efforts are mere attempts to keep pace with the USDollar decline, as stocks merely maintain a constant purchase power.

A hidden overarching hand seeks the global Gold Standard as the bonafide solution. Darwin is at work, but Adam Smith turns a new chapter. The crumbling monetary solution demands a solution. Further investment in the current system assures a devastating decline into the abyss of insolvency and ruin.

THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

From subscribers and readers:

At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.

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(ScottN in Washington)

When I initially read your writings, they provoked a wide range of emotions in me from fear and anger to outright laughter. Initially some of your predictions ranged from the ridiculous to impossible. Yet time and again, over the past five years, I have watched with incredulity as they came true. Your analysis contains cogent analysis that benefits from a solid network of private contacts coupled with your scouring of the internet for information.”

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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at  www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at  JimWillieCB@aol.com

50 FACTORS LAUNCHING GOLD

[Contrary Investors Cafe]

Deflationists & Blind Eyes

without comments

by Jim Willie

My forecast has been for a powerful Inflationary Recession to occur, a consistently laid out analysis, delivered during the last year or more in clear terms. That has been my call, and continues to be my call. The Deflationist camp is making more noises. They do not know their limitations, which are obstructed by a blind eye toward the monetary inflation. They do not understand it, so they ignore it, and attempt to encapsulate it into a convenient bottle set aside on the margin. Gonzalo Lira will be proved wrong about price inflation showing on the official Consumer Price Inflation index. So what? The prevailing price inflation will ramp past 12% easily as he also predicts. His style is wonderful, even if a mirror is a fixture at his desk. His details in argument are strong and cogent. An anger meter is a fixture at my desk. So what? A patch firmly placed over one eye is a fixture for Rick Ackerman. In truly remarkable fashion, he seems incapable to realize that the US Federal Reserve has been the mammoth fountain of money to produce price inflation. His challenge is shallow in my view, since almost $3 trillion has been spewed into the financial system so far by the USFed, with more to come. In fact, since the emergency G-7 Meeting held two weeks ago, the central banks have joined forces in a Global QE movement that will propel the Gold & Silver price much higher and render deep further damage to the USDollar. The Deflationists paid no notice, or did not notice, or did not comprehend the importance. They are a laughing stock crew of half blind shamans.

USFED MOUTHPIECE ECHOS

The Deflationists fail consistently to measure the flow or pace of inflation, seeming mouthpieces without realization for the USFed and Wall Street itself, whose incessant calls of dreaded deflation have opened the political floodgate for global monetary hyper-inflation. They do not even recognize their compromised subservient support role. The aberrant crowd of Deflationists have a blind eye to the dynamics of inflation, and how it transforms from excessive funds in the financial system, to reaction against the USDollar, to rising commodity prices, to rising cost structure, and finally to extreme pressures for end product prices, including higher wages. They dismiss each step of the way, and do not bother to explain their progressive errors along the pathogenesis pathway. The USFed has passively developed followers like a Pied Piper. They are just lousy economists in the Deflationist camp. A good technical analyst on chart interpretation in no way makes for economist qualification. They cannot integrate complex systems where both asset deflation and monetary inflation coincide, collide, and conspire to produce economic wreckage and price inflation. They act sheepish when what they predict will not happen, actually comes to pass. Recall they have been preaching for three years that crude oil and gold would descend lower in prices. They serve as the bell tower in an empty village. They have also been preaching that end product prices would fall also due to low final demand. They are consistently wrong, but never apologetic. Sadly, most Deflationists cannot adequate even define deflation, even when challenged. It is a catch-word they fixate upon, that permits them to dismiss anything and everything pertaining to the ravaging complex effects of monetary inflation, whose dynamics are beyond their scope of comprehension, perhaps even recognition.

Mine are not rants, but detailed arguments with numerous factors fortifying arguments put forth toward a thesis defended on many fronts in broad fashion for over five years. To be sure, my work includes some invective due to overflowing anger at the system having gone so far awry with deep fraud, coordinated media deception, impunity for those responsible, and elevated powers granted to them during reforms. Rants are shallow harangues. Mine is thorough analysis put to paper. These guys should consult a dictionary, as some of their own haughty dismissals fail to address or respond to much of anything my work has put forth. The word rant might invite an accusation of shallow in the mental process. They often argue in a circle under the pretense of confrontation, never addressing important points like the flow of the increased monetary aggregate, and its destinations with strong effects. One analyst in particular should really stick to what he does best, that being technical chart analysis. While the historical economics books of the past are indeed enlightening in theory, little truly applies to explain all that occurs in the profound intervention and rigged financial markets led by a criminal elite class whose main enterprise is clearly war and narcotics, followed by orchestrated chaos designed to permit broad elite powers. Their past excellent work should be kept on the wall for constant reminder of true market forces, true economic forces, all of which are opposed by powerful criminal actions and heavy handed monetary policy.

THE BLIND EYE TO INFLATION

My main ongoing criticism of the Deflation camp has been their blind eye to the human response to asset deflation. Obvious home prices fell and continue to fall, and related asset backed bonds have fallen progressively into ruin. That is not the point. Their camp has consistently ignored the central bank response with multi-$trillion monetary expansion. In round #1, the excesses were tucked away in the Federal Reserve interest bearing account for the big banks. They were essentially Loan Loss Reserves of those banks, which were removed from the big bank balance sheets only to be relocated on the USFed books. In round #2, the excesses went global with the entire commodity complex exploding upward in price. Purchase of USTreasury Bonds in the hundreds of $billions cannot be contained anymore than herding tiger cats. Most noticeable among commodity price rises was in food & energy. With most food items up 15% to 20% in price in a single year, and gasoline up 25% in several months, the pinch is on with powerful price inflation. But it appears on the cost side, as my analysis has mentioned numerous times. What the Deflationists miss from the start is that the extreme storm conditions come from the falling asset prices and wage effects on the one side to form a low pressure zone, meeting the rising monetary expansion and counter reaction by commodity prices against the debased USDollar in a high pressure zone. Thus the collision and powerful storm vortex, which they miss with blind eyes. Their camp never addresses the storm conditions, ever. The Deflationists show their blind eye by overlooking, or ignoring, or never noticing the storm itself, where natural collapse meets extraordinary monetary aggregate growth in reaction. They never mention multi-$trillion central bank expansion of the money supply, which debases the value of money, even making a total mockery of money, thereby adding to the cost structure in a massive way, pressuring prices and wages. The rising stock indexes serve as evidence of the monetary inflation, which they do not recognize.

My point made consistently is that wages will not keep pace with rising costs, even made a national priority to halt the secondary inflation effects on wages. In that sense, my analysis has joined the Deflationists, but only with one foot in their shallow pond of constructs, hardly qualifying as a School of Thought. Since wages do not keep pace with costs, the unemployment will rise and has risen, a point made consistently here. Therefore my work cannot be carelessly labeled as over the top inflationist. Sadly, most Deflationists do not understand how to read my analysis, because they operate with a blind eye to the many sided crisis, too focused on his narrow perspective that cannot adapt to the current complex situation. The Deflationists cannot integrate into their shallow thinking the combination of inflation on the monetary side and deflation on the asset (and wage) side, surely a difficult and extraordinary situation loaded with complexity. They lost my respect long ago, the entire clan. Most of their followers in paid subscription services suffered crippling personal financial losses. A few analyst newsletter writers from their camp have learned nothing and continue their tired saw with shallow analysis and a string of wrong-footed forecasts. So be it!

IMPORTANT CRUX OF THE MATTER

The heart of the matter is not the outcome, but the path to the end point. If a man and woman are destined to be placed in a cemetery crypt, is that a reason not to marry and enjoy a life together, filled with bliss and human challenge? Of course not. One should hate to be married to one of those Deflation Knuckleheads, a downtrodden and bleak crowd. The pathway is where fortunes are made and lost. The Deflationists have gotten it wrong for a long time. One should not be overly concerned about three years from now if an economic collapse takes place. That is the obvious outcome, not too challenging an issue at all. The Deflationists believe they offer wisdom in such a pronouncement. It is obvious. The wrong-footed Deflationists have focused on for a long time, with precious little elucidation of the path to the end. My concern is the extent to which the cost structure will rise, and then how much the end product & service price system will rise, and how much the wages will rise in compensation upon concerted demand. The Deflationists have ignored the pressure in 2007 and 2008 and never foresaw the entire Quantitative Easing movement, which was forecasted with ease in the Hat Trick Letter. The Deflationists consistently ignore the powerful effects of Quantitative Easing itself. They dismiss the human response to falling asset prices. The only conventional assets rising nowadays are stocks and farmlands. The thesis put forth that DEFLATION WILL PREVAIL BY SNUFFING OUT THE HYPER-INFLATION represents a cavalier avoidance of the entire sequence toward the end, reveals lack of comprehension of the extreme forces in conflict, and attempts to sit above the fray in arrogance beset by ignorance. Of more concern to me, and millions of people, is the important middle portion of the game, that happen from innings three thru eight. The ninth inning calls by wrong-footed blind eyed Deflationists pale by comparison to discussions on whether banksters take global control of governments, how the current monetary system is fracturing, whether new monetary forms are shoved down our throats, or how an alternative oppositional monetary system can overthrow those in regimes in power. They never discuss such lofty but important concepts, since they do not comprehend them, cannot perceive them, and cannot envision them. They retreat from such discussions.

The Deflationist themes ignore the Inflation story. The G-7 Meeting to adopt the Yen Selloff Pact was a veiled GLOBAL QE ACCORD. The pact has not even been discussed by the shallow Deflationist camp even though it is the most signficant policy directive since September 2008, more important than the original QE decision in March 2009. That is because it is Global QE, stamped and approved by the major central banks, monetary hyper-inflation gone global. The Deflationists live in a cave, unaware of such events or dismissive of them in arrogance. They instead continue to defend the wrong-footed construct of Deflation. In personal email and telephone exchanges, my habit is to constantly laugh at their pre-occupation with Deflation. On more than 40-50 occasions with certain contacts, my reply is simply WHAT IS DEFLATION?? Shallow responses come in return, unimpressive one and all. We will continue to experience and suffer both deflation of assets and wages, during a massive storm of hyper-inflation from central banks. The inflationary effect is a perverse factor toward the real game on stage. Do not expect wages to keep up with the rising costs. This has been a major point of mine all along, so a massive squeeze will continue. The Deflationists do not understand the reaction to the squeeze, focusing arrogantly on the endpoint. Their work is of little practical value, certainly of zero investment value. The squeeze will render harm to both households and businesses, with lost discretionary spending and lost profit margins. Their debate over which prevails misses the entire point. That is, the Deflation will continue in certain asset classes, especially housing and commercial property, while the Inflation will continue in monetary aggregate, TO MAKE A GROWING POWERFUL DAMAGING GLOBAL HURRICANE. Much end product price inflation will come. More end service price inflation will come. See shipping charges for a start. It seems obvious that the Deflationists ignore the battle and try to describe the outcome in narrow myopic terms. In a sense, they are the flat earth society.

ELOQUENCE LACED WITH IGNORANCE

Obviously, we cannot have a Weimar-style hyper-inflation. We do live in a credit based global economy. But the reasons why differ since the current global situation is different. The Weimar conditions were local to the microcosm that was Germany. It was enclosed. The current situation has its Weimar elements, especially endorsed by the recent March G-7 Meeting. That is global Weimar by any name, given its global coordination of USTreasury Bond purchase after broad discharge from Japan. The Deflationists cannot comprehend a global Weimar concept. Ackerman makes an astonishing claim that exposes the blind eye and ignorance to current conditions outside the US Dome of Perception. His eloquence should not be confused with wisdom. A good vocabulary and command of words cannot hide wrong statements that ignore the facts and overlook the trends.

He wrote, “Let me cut to the chase: Hyper-inflation occurs when people, fearing their money is about to become worthless, panic out of currency and into physical goods. This is highly unlikely to happen in the United States for several reasons. To wit: 1) Whereas Germany’s hyper-inflation took several years to ramp up, today’s financial markets are primed for a catastrophic collapse that could conceivably run its course in a week, if not mere hours; 2) under the circumstances, there would be no shifting of financial assets into hard goods simply because any financial assets one holds at the time of the collapse would become worthless before one could sell them; and, 3) at that point, there would be insufficient currency available to drive a hyper-inflation, since mattress money is likely to be scarce and because branch banks keep only about $25,000 to $50,000 in cash on hand. All of which implies we will go straight to deflation without the emancipating, hyper-inflationary interlude that some mortgage debtors might be hoping for.

Until now, I have been reluctant to air the simplistic argument, used by economists when they are at their most condescending, that inflation implies nothing more than an increase in the money supply. Although that is a truism that we would not argue with, it holds little value for anyone attempting to predict how a drastic increase or decrease in the money supply might play out symptomatically. While the textbook theory of it could account for the gas & groceries inflation that QE1 & QE2 have produced so far, it fails to explain logically how we would go from grocery store inflation to systemic and pervasive hyper-inflation. To repeat: Hyper-inflation would require the shifting of cash money into physical goods and assets. But other than mattress money and the relatively paltry sums of cash on hand at branch banks, there would be precious little cash to shift. And if the panicked money is assumed to come out of Treasurys and other paper assets, it begs the question of how much the paper assets will fetch on the day when there are no buyers other than the Federal Reserve? My argument is simple. I will not yield ground to any hyper-inflationist who fails to explain, if the system collapses, where the money will come from to bid tangible assets skyward.” (footnote: do not trust any analyst who writes “to wit” just like do not trust any banker named Jamie). The focus of my attention here is Ackerman, but similar criticisms are due for Karl Denninger, Mike Shedlock, Jay Taylor, and Ian Gordon.

FURTHER REBUTTAL TO THE BLIND EYE

To begin with, 12 to 18 months ago the Deflationist camp claimed the price of crude oil and the Gold price would fall and dramatically so. Wrong on both counts. Curiously, the camp avoids defending their wrong-footed points as the months pass, while the crude oil price zips past $120 (Brent that is, since West Texas is the province of paper games), while the Gold price hurtles toward $1500. Have Deflationists not noticed? People are moving rapidly out of quickly debased paper money and into tangible goods. Conversion of USTreasurys has become commonplace among sovereign wealth funds. Have Deflationists not noticed? This is the basis of the commodity price rise and the basis of the precious metals price rise. The USFed has in fact picked up almost the entire slack in USTBond purchase during the massive conversion process. The movement is better observed outside the US Dome of Perception, where foreign USTBond creditiors have openly halted their USTreasury bids, replaced by the USFed printing pre$$ eagerly. Foreign sovereign wealth funds across the globe have openly expressed their dismay over the entire QE initiatives, anger of unilateral monetary policy decisions made in the United States with seeming contempt, and the consequent harsh effect on commodity prices. They have increased their gold (and even silver) purchases in conversion of US$-based assets. They have rebalanced their reserves. They have stopped bidding at USTreasury auctions. Have Deflationists not noticed?

Germany’s financial collapse took several years. So is the US financial collapse, a long painful process. What began with a subprime mortgage problem in mid-2007 spread to a full blown housing decline, a bank insolvency problem, then a sovereign debt problem, then a monetary inflation solution with severe blowback, and now a monetary system discredit problem. The pathogenesis has so far spanned four years. Have Deflationists not noticed?  Anyone who believes the US financial collapse could occur in a single week is a moron. Actually, such an observer would be a blind man and moron. The US banking system in my view suffered a death experience in September 2008. The coroner was overridden by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, thus declaring the corpse permitted to walk with props and to speak from a recorded message, pretending to be alive. After April 1st decree in 2009, the Zombies have roamed the US landscape freely. Have Deflationists not noticed? The big US banks have been operating with an Extend & Pretend policy that their crippled balance sheet overloaded with toxic credit assets will somehow recover in the next year. Instead, the Real Estate Owned (REO) residential homes on the bank books have ballooned to over one million properties. Almost half of all home sales are short sales and foreclosure sales. The entire process has been extended to the extreme over times. Have Deflationists not noticed?

Financial assets are indeed being shifted into hard assets, in particular the basic commodities. Nations are building stockpiles. The main focus has been on crude oil to the commecial side and to Gold & Silver on the financial side. But some speculation has come to the copper market (which JPMorgan seems interested in), to the coffee market due to problems in Africa, to the sugar market (which JPMorgan seems fond of), and to the cotton market from broad necessity. Financial mavens, news anchors, and hedge fund managers have all been touting their strategies in response to runaway monetary inflation commanded from the marbled offices of the USFed. They respond to the devaluation of money itself. The migration to hard assets is well along. Have Deflationists not noticed?

Did somebody say there was insufficient currency to drive up and power hyper-inflation? Excuse me, but that statement truly misses the 800-pound gorilla sitting at the Deflationist dinner table. The USFed has expanded its balance sheet to over $3 trillion. The USFed has printed over $2.7 trillion in QE programs, with much more to come. That figure does not account for their secretive monetary extensions, like grants without collateral to fellow central bankers and friends of the syndicate. In fact, the QE program will soon be announced as ended, since so offensive, when in fact it will be incorporated and melded completely into routine weekly activity. The Euro Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan have all joined in the paper confetti production enterprise. Have Deflationists not noticed? The spillover from the banks who hoarded the USTBonds took place and the spilled funds hit the commodity market. The Deflationists claimed it would not happen, no spillover of any kind. They were wrong. The next spillover will be to end product prices, and to some extent wages. The Deflationists will be wrong again. But the wage hikes will not be adequate to manage the higher costs to come. The increase in money supply plays out symptomatically under their noses without much recognition or comprehension.

The next phase will be for Cost Push, which will introduce higher prices and smaller packages by vendors. Then come demands for higher wages with high pitched battles. Some will be won, many will be lost, especially given the state government union legislation that has bagun to ban collective bargaining. The workers will lose more than in the 1980 decade, when 10% and 12% salary gains were commonplace. The corporations are supposely flush with these $2 trillion in cash on their balance sheets. Let’s see how much are devoted to commodity investments in counter action to the USDollar debasement (not noticed by Deflationists) and how much are devoted to labor concessions under demand of work action (not expected by Deflationists). My preference would be for capital investment and factory revamps, but the United States and its newfound marxism blended with fascism and oppressive regulatory impositions is not a place conducive for corporate expansion. These are some of the dynamics underway, which are not detected by those with blind eyes. The Deflationists prefer to cling to shallow arguments of a move  straight to deflation without all the intermediary steps that cannot comprehend.

Cash held by the people and investors and hedge funds pension funds and elsewhere is in a massive migration to hard assets. Physical goods & tangible assets are rising in price. Have Deflationists not noticed? Witness the burgeoning demand for USMint coins, resulting in shortages and production shutdowns across the world. Have Deflationists not noticed? Amplifying the USFed money output parade, the troubles in Egypt with associated threats to the Suez Canal, followed by troubles in Libya with interruptions to output, have all contributed to the movement of funds into hard assets like crude oil. Have Deflationists not noticed? As for buyers, right now the only (or primary) buyer for USTreasurys is the USFed itself. Plenty of global funds continue to chase crude oil, industrial metals, grains, farmlands, cotton, coffee, sugar, as well as the King Gold & Queen Silver. Have Deflationists not noticed? The interesting opportunities will continue to be offered for wealth accumulation in defense of the unspeakable abuses of money. These are the middle innings of opportunity when it is still legal to build and hold wealth. Those years might be nearing an end, unfortunately as we near open confiscation after hidden confiscation. The money to bid tangible assets skyward, my blind fools, is from the collective gaggle of central banks which are in a panic printing money without the controls to direct it where they wish. This is not a rant, but rather a directed rebuttal of a shallow discourse laden with blind spots, shallow arguments, and arrogance. Let us gaze at the fool with a blind eye in a purple robe sitting on a self-designed throne, with zero authority and a track record of major missed events.

GOLD & SILVER REACTION TO MONETARY DESTRUCTION

The Gold price has danced above the $1440 resistance without much conviction or gusto, but certainly enough to warrant calls for a golden breakout. But Silver, WOW! How impressive! Take no prisoners, that Silver Streak! Bob Moriarty of 321Gold made a silver price top declaration at the $34 mark about one month ago. As editor he even refused to publish an article by a bright fellow analyst who was forecasting a move in Silver to the $40 mark (not me). The word censorship fits. Then BobMo casually proclaimed the $38 price to be the new Silver top. One must wonder if he has become the new Prechter in the gold community, whose calls for a gold top at $600 and at $900 and at $1000 and at $1200 and at $1400 have made him a laughingstock. Will BobMo the great censor, whose website serves more as a personal investment promotional rag, proclaim $42 to be the next Silver top, followed by $46 and finally $50 as the final final top?? He clearly does not comprehend the gradual destruction of the global monetary system, or the tremendous volume of the monetary inflation with USDollar footprints, the discredit of sovereign debt, the diversification out of the USTBond, and the global revolt against both the USDollar and the Anglo banksters. That is ok, anyone can start a website. Witness a powerful Paradigm Shift where even editors miss the big picture. This systemic disruptive change and shift has been a topic in the Hat Trick Letter for almost three years, with a consistent message offered. And yes, the Deflationist Knuckleheads never address this Paradigm Shift. They are dull blades one and all, beset by blind eyes, although a couple are eloquent in forming sentences. They must realize their limitations.

A bright colleague remarked this week about the interplay between Gold & Silver, and how the shiny white metal takes advantage of the high level battles. He is a veteran COMEX trader and valued colleague. He wrote, “The price of Gold is totally intertwined with the dollar and thus all Western currency. I have seen some lines drawn in the sand with Gold over the years, but this is one of the most concerted and coordinated I can remember. As demand continues to push the price up relentlessly, and the Boyz rally around to cap it, the hot money runs in Silver. Very true even this week. Notice that when the Gold price was pushed down from $1445, the Silver price refused to budge in the mid-$38 range. Silver provided the signal of new imminent highs for both metals. In the next two days, Gold moved upward past $1460 while Silver broke to a strong clear new high approaching the exalted $40 level. Gold wins the political battles, while Silver takes triple the spoils. That pattern will continue to unfold. Whatever percentage gain Gold registers, Silver will register triple that gain. The shortages are acute and openly recognized for Silver.

Analysts like Max Keiser have brought attention to the Silver potential, urging citizens to purchase silver coins and bankrupt JPMorgan. Such rallying cries seem enthusiastic and full of vitriol, but they also seem naive on the desired outcome of a toppled titan, since the JPMorgan losses will be monetized by the USFed and USDept Treasury easily. Did they not monetize the big bank losses in mortgage bonds? To be sure, a global citizen movement to purchase Silver coins will render damage to JPMorgan, which will pass on the losses like dirty diapers to the USGovt, the eager storage center custodian of toxic effluent. The acute Silver shortages are in front of our noses, in the news, and point to extreme vulnerability in the USDollar, if not the USGovt debt condition. The USMint in possible illegal manner has at times suspended the production of Silver coins to be minted. They by law are commissioned to continue to meet public demand, which means they must bid up the Silver price if required. The COMEX shortage of Silver is so widespread and in the open, that futures contracts are being settled in cash, after the contract owner signs a waiver to permit the breach of contract itself. A 25% to 30% cash settlement bonus has become the norm. Such actions in policy have lit a fire under the Silver market and lifted its price. Angry from incessant charges of currency manipulation, the Chinese have responded by purchasing large truckloads of Gold & Silver. The real manipulation is by the USFed, whose debt monetization has gone global, whose USDollar effect is undeniable. That is blatant manipulation of not only the sovereign debt, but the currency denominated in it, extending to the entire monetary system. The group of major fiat currencies are all attached like a floating papyrus bound by threads. They are discredited in unison, weighed down by a debt burden and rotten paper.

The Euro is rising, despite its crippled condition. The ruse of a higher interest rate set by the Euro Central Bank is really amusing. Maybe they will come through with an inflation beater rate hike of a puny 25 basis points. How irrelevant? Both the US and EU have prevailing inflation rates over 8%. The cost of money remains 7% below the prevailing price inflation, maybe 12% too low for practical commerce. The appeal of the Euro comes from the totally obscene ruinous debased condition of the USDollar. The reverse beauty contest leaves the clownbuck as the gal left on stage seeking a dance partner. The toothless Euro at least has two dancing legs. The USDollar has none, nor teeth. The newest wrinkle in currency flows is the Arab investment in Euros, as they seek anything but USDollars. The US War Machine has targeted Libya, and turned its head from Bahrain. Just this week, Prince Turki of the House of Saud warned his princes that the Saudi Arabians must seek protection from other sources besides the United States. With the Saudis acknowledging security shortcomings, one must bring into focus the Petro-Dollar Standard, the defacto accord between the US and Saudi Arabia. They sell OPEC crude oil in US$ denomination only, and the USMilitary provides security protection for the royals in power as they accumulate great wealth. The accord is slowly disintegrating, with enormous potential impact to the USDollar standing. The US$ DX index is flirting with yet another breakdown below critical support. Each bounce off support is met by fresh selling. It seems military underpinning for the USDollar is slowly fading away like an old soldier after several decades.

The Gold breakout is clearly timid, lacking gusto and strong conviction. The Powerz have decided that they must contain the Gold price advance. The factors pushing up Gold are numerous. The sovereign debt decay process has led to lost integrity in the global monetary system organized as major currencies. They are all being debased by mammoth money printing initiatives with the full blessing of the governments and finance ministries. Each paper ambush led by naked shorting of the futures contract has resulted in a slingshot lift in Silver, a veritable nasty backfire in their faces. Those who cannot accept such a forecast of $100 Silver come from the same crowd that refused to believe last November that a $25 price would give way to a $40 price. But the Powerz cannot halt the powerful impressive advance of Silver, which will next take assault on the $50 mark. In two years, it will surpass the $100 mark, maybe sooner. The Gold price will make new highs in repeated fashion, and continue the upward movement, but it will be slow and steady toward the $2000 mark, inhibited the entire way. But Silver will be the impressive winner in the precious metals arena. At least one Silver substitute is already well over $1000 in price. That is the hint and clue of future price direction. Silver will take no prisoners while Gold shakes off its bondage. It has almost reached my $40 stated target, right on cue. One of the most profound changes that has come to the precious metals market is the shift, whereby price discovery has moved directly to the physical market. The paper futures market has been thoroughly corrupted.

The latest travesty is that JPMorgan is attempting to take delivery on a large portion of its short silver position. No misprint here. On their short position, that is, so that they can deliver it!! That is like making a demand to a credit card bank that the borrower intends to collect the debt from the creditor. Utterly absurd. That comedy is worth more to watch than the CFTC charade on position limits. The other profound change is that inflation expectations are being dictated by the Gold & Silver market, not the USTreasury Bonds any longer. The USFed Chairman has lost an enormous amount of credibility in his focus upon the long-term USTBond as an indication of price inflation expectations. The USGovt debt securities have lost their buyers. Not only is the USFed monetizing USTreasurys at a $100 billion clip per month, they are also purchasing the Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). The TIPS are supposed to act as an inflation gauge. It too is corrupted.

A bigger fool than the Deflation Knuckleheads is the USFed Chairman Bernanke. He is a myopic professor who wrote a fine piece of revisionist history of the Great Depression, who now presides over a global monetary systemic collapse. Gold is reacting, but Silver reacts even more. As long as the insolvent big US banks remain in operation and are not liquidated, as long as toxic paper repositories rest under the USGovt roof, as long as the USGovt deficits remain well above $1 trillion annually, as long as Quantitative Easing legitimizes the debt monetization without checks, the GOLD PRICE WILL RISE INDEFINITELY. It is that simple.

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DEFLATIONISTS & BLIND EYES

[Investor Cafe]

Here’s Why Hyperinflationist Lira Is Wrong

without comments

First, let me say that I’ve long enjoyed reading the rants of over-the-top inflationists like Jim Willie, but also the relatively subdued essays of Gonzalo Lira — even if the latter sometimes comes across as the kind of guy who could wear out a mirror. I feel a comradeship with both because, predictions about the financial endgame aside, I agree with much of what they have said — most particularly about the robust defensive role that bullion seems likely to play no matter what happens. But that is not to say that I agree with all of Lira’s and Jim Willie’s arguments. Some background is in order. My instincts concerning deflation were hard-wired in 1976 after reading C.V. Myers’ The Coming Deflation. The title was premature, as we now know, but the book’s core idea was as timeless and immutable as the Law of Gravity. Myers stated, with elegant simplicity, that “Ultimately, every penny of every debt must be paid — if not by the borrower, then by the lender.” Inflationists and deflationists implicitly agree on this point — we are all ruinists at heart, as our readers will long since have surmised, and we differ only on the question of who, borrower or lender, will take the hit. As Myers made clear, however, someone will have to pay. If you understand this, then you understand why the dreadnought of real estate deflation, for one, will remain with us even if 30 million terminally afflicted homeowners leave their house keys in the mailbox. To repeat: We do not make debt disappear by walking away from it; someone will have to take the hit.

Expanding on that point alone, I could dismiss Lira’s entire argument with a wave of the hand, invoking the killer question that blogger Charles Hugh Smith has asked of overheated inflationists, to wit: Why would the rich and powerful men who control the Federal Reserve, and who would be wiped out by hyperinflation, allow such a thing to happen? The obvious answer is that they wouldn’t. And won’t. I’ve made this point myself many times before and in many ways, sometimes asking rhetorically whether we should expect Joe Sixpack and tens of millions of other underwater homeowners to be able to retire their mortgages using the confetti money that a hyperinflation would produce. Mortgage lenders would be big losers, of course, but so would anyone hoping to ever own a home — or to borrow money, for whatever purpose.

Unbearable Cost of ‘Escaping’ Debt

One of the best places to find the inflation vs. deflation argument deconstructed to a fine science, and to confront the horrific – and, as I am about to argue, unbearable — cost of “escaping” debt via hyperinflation, is the 1993 book The Great Reckoning. Co-authors Jim Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg went to great lengths to refract every aspect of the debate. It was this book, and a subsequent dialogue that I had with Jim Davidson, that hardened my deflationist ideas, convincing me – as they likely would many of you, though perhaps not Lira — that a deflationary path would at least be less ruinous than a hyperinflationary one. To be sure, vast amounts of real wealth would be destroyed in either case. But deflation would have the virtue of inflicting pain on debtors more or less in accordance with their sins, bankrupting those who most deserved it. That said, one needn’t drag in moral baggage to explain why the powers that be are extremely unlikely to pursue a hyperinflationary course.

And “pursue” is the correct word here, since, as The Great Reckoning made clear, hyperinflations don’t simply happen; they can only occur following the willful and deliberate decision of a sovereign government to hyperinflate. We need only consider the catastrophic consequences of hyperinflation to understand why such a scheme is so very unlikely to be promoted and effected by the Masters of the Universe. For starters, savers and lenders as a class would be wiped out, since their financial assets would become as worthless as the dollar itself. Bond markets and all other institutional conduits of saving and investment would cease to function in the absence of trust – trust that would take many years for capitalists to earn back. From day one, a darkening economy would subsist on cash transactions, which in turn would bring on the hardest of times, little economic growth, and a drop in the standard of living so steep that it might take a generation to rekindle even a glimmer of the American Dream.

Deflation’s ‘Virtues’

Deflation, on the other hand, would leave the bond and stock markets intact, sparing those with little or no debt from its worst ravages. For those who owe, a tidal wave of bankruptcies would mete out punishment commensurate with each borrower’s sins of profligacy and/or greed. Businesses would be starved for credit, but whatever savings were available would go to the most promising of them. Most advantageously for an economy on-the-mend, it would be many years before capital would be hijacked by the paper-shufflers and feather merchants. In both the public and private sphere, Americans would be forced to live within their means.

I won’t belabor Lira’s arguments where he attempts, not entirely without success, to “slice and dice” my logic when it is at its weakest. But his main criticism — that I have not made a case for deflation, only one against hyperinflation – is disingenuous. For in fact, I have stated the case for deflation thus: Someday very soon, following the precipitous failure of the world’s banks and securities markets, we will all be too broke to push the price of anything sky-high. Hyperinflationists assume we will have vast piles of cash at-the-ready, physical or digital, to exchange for real goods in a panic or along the way to hyperinflation. But will we? Read Lira’s smug hit-job a dozen times and you will find no mention of how that cash will get into our hands, much less into our hands if the banking system should go blotto. He avers only that, well before a collapse, via quantitative easing, the government will “ram” money “into the economy.” As if that hasn’t been tried to death already.

No Middle Way

If you believe that one or the other, deflation or hyperinflation, will eventually do us in, then you may find yourself won over by my argument simply on the evidence I muster against hyperinflation. Read on and judge for yourself. For what it’s worth, Lira’s ruinist essays suggest that we do see eye to eye on one thing – that there is no “middle way” that might allow us to avoid the catastrophic liquidation of a global debt bubble whose notional value has been estimated as high as a quadrillion dollars.

Let me dwell for yet another moment on this idea that Americans could go broke overnight. Lira apparently believes this unlikely, if not impossible, and he could be right. But not very, since it is beyond conjecture that the day-to-day economy would grind to a halt quickly if digital money were thrown into chaos and disrepute for more than a few days. And it’s not as though Americans are so very confident in electronic money’s soundness at this point that the banking system could withstand even a minor crisis. Unfortunately, and as we all know, there are no minor crises any more, especially in the financial realm.

We’ll All Be Broke

So, broke is what most of us will be when the dust settles, and it is perhaps only a matter of the rate at which we go broke that divides inflationist from deflationist. How quickly could the financial system come tumbling down? Last May’s “flash crash” on Wall Street demonstrated that it could occur in a trice. Picture the Morning After the next flash crash, but assume that, this time around, the Plunge Protection Team has been unable to arrest its spread into bond markets and other securities markets around the world. Hardly a stretch, right? But it’s a big stretch to imagine a hyperinflation arising from the smoke and rubble of the creditless world that would result.

Will we have gone broke without having had the chance to pay off our mortgages in snide? I say yes; Lira, for his argument to hold, is obliged to say no. I hope he’s right. Then again, maybe hyperinflation will unfold so slowly that we’ll all have time to trade piles of shrinking dollars for real stuff currently owned by…fools?

Whatever happens, I wouldn’t put much store in Lira’s assurance that even small branch-banks keep scads of cash around. Try to withdraw $25,000 from your own branch if you want to find out the truth. He’ll probably say that the banks, with a nod from Uncle Sam, could refill everyone’s account with digital money overnight. I say, think about that for a moment – about the economically fatal traffic jam this would create instantly in the world of real transactions.

Deflationary Gas-Bag

Lira’s arguments, although certainly not his ungentlemanly, preening condescension, are at their weakest when he attempts to explain how quantitative easing will inject a hyperinflationary sum of dollars into the real economy. He says our bankrupt government will simply spend limitless quantities of funny money into the “wider economy.” If it were that easy, why are home prices still falling after trillions of dollars worth of “stimulus”? And why have wages failed to rise? Granted, fuel and grocery prices have been going up. But how long can that trend continue with incomes stagnating and household discretionary cash plummeting? (That was not a problem in 1922 Weimar, by the way, for reason that I shall explain shortly.) And how many seats will the airlines fill this summer if prices stay above $500? With respect to the inflation of stock-market prices, we’ll let Lira shoot himself in the foot if he wants to argue that Wall Street’s cosmic gas-bag is other than a deflationary juggernaut waiting to implode. Meanwhile, a vastly larger gas-bag in the form of a global derivatives bubble is set to implode with irresistible force. Hundreds of trillions of dollars’ worth of collateral are destined to shrink to the vanishing point. That is the true measure of deflation’s force, and when it starts to snowball again as it did in 2008, no puny multitrillion-dollar monetization by the Fed will even begin to counteract it.

Finally, we cannot let Lira evade the question of how, specifically, the government will “ram” (his word) QE3/QE4/QE5 money into the economy, especially when the state and local governments who in earlier times would have been the most eager and efficient conduits for these sums have begun to refuse them, knowing as they do that each new stimulus dollar will only create more debt for future taxpayers. We’d like to believe that the common sense of Republican and Tea Party governors and legislators alone will suffice to smother any inflation that might otherwise seep into the economy via supercharged outlays of cities, counties and states. In fact, the deflationary opposite is happening as local and state governments expand layoffs and pare budgets to the bone. Which leaves only the private economy to receive a wage stimulus sufficient to catalyze hyperinflation. On that score, just as we’ve asked hyperinflationists to wake us when we can sell our home for a quadrillion dollars, we’ll ask them now to send us a job application when GM is paying assembly-line workers $800 an hour.

When Money Dies

Big employers effectively did so in Germany, allowing weekly wage settlements with then-pervasive trade unions to track hyperinflation almost step-for-step. But you’ll need to read Adam Fergusson’s book about the Weimar hyperinflation, When Money Dies, to understand exactly why the U.S. is legally and practically constrained from duplicating Germany’s dubious feat. If you believe otherwise — believe, as Lira evidently does, that the Fed could somehow put a google of dollars into circulation on demand — then you should be buying real estate hand-over-fist right now. When Money Dies is a great read even for those who’d rather not be disabused of the notion that today’s USA, economically and financially, is not 1921’s Weimar. I particularly recommend a chapter that recounts how the most extreme periods of German hyperinflation occurred while the country’s money-printing presses were idled by strikes. Turns out, some of Weimar’s largest employers had been authorized by the government to print scrip in the event that crates of official money didn’t arrive in time to meet payroll. Imagine what such a policy could do for Detroit! For the whole world!

Rather than argue that this couldn’t happen, we’ll say only that if it did, it would be but a momentary blip in a deflationary collapse in real estate that Lira doesn’t even mention. Just wait till the incipient collapse in commercial property values hits full-bore. This is yet another deflationary juggernaut that the arrogant and pompous Lira has conveniently failed to notice. He will soon, though, and the shock of it may yet distract his attention from an inflation that so far has barely overflowed the lettuce bin.

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Here’s Why Hyperinflationist Lira Is Wrong

[zero hedge]

Financial Dislocation: Cycles and Booms and Busts Just Don’t Happen. They Are Planned …

without comments

By Bob Chapman

www.globalresearch.ca

Cycles and booms and busts just don’t happen. They are planned that way. In the late 1990s Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan commented on irrational exuberance and said he hoped the market would cool down. The amount of money and credit he had introduced into the system had a great deal to do with a forming of a bubble. He indicated that on the short-term there was little he could do about it, when all he had to do was raise margin requirements from 50% to 60% temporarily. We wrote about the solution as a coupe of other writers did, but no one really wanted to take away the dotcom punchbowl. In late March of 2000 the market began its collapse. We removed our subscribers out of the market in the first week of April, as did Joe Granville, a friend and one of the best market timers ever.

Sir Alan Greenspan spent almost 20 years serving his masters who own the Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and many more. The Fed has no independence – it takes orders from these banks and brokerage houses. This same group controls Congress by paying off 95% of the representatives and senators via campaign contributions and via lobbying. Thus, with the assistance of the Fed, Wall Street and banking, they not only control money, supply, credit, interest rates and Washington, but they control our entire economic and financial scene and the lives of every American. Booms and bubbles can be blamed on politicians, but the real culprits behind the scenes are Wall Street and banking in which we spent 29 years of our lives and for many of those years owned our own firm. If you do not know and understand these realities you should not be an investor or a financial and economic journalist. Our whole existence as a nation is controlled from behind the scenes by parsonages and groups most people have never heard of. All of what you see just didn’t happen; it was planned that way. People must understand that creating money out of thin air to fund astronomical deficits has to end in failure and ruin. We are now in an inflationary depression that will probably graduate into hyperinflation and then descend into a deflationary depression. This is what these elitists have done for centuries and have more often than not gotten away with it. This time it will be different.

We started warning people more than 50 years ago that the path America was taking could only end in tears. The days of inflation and social and political misery are finally upon us and as a result, so is social dislocation worldwide in the form of protest, demonstrations, civil wars and the overthrow of governments. We are not witnessing that in North Africa and the Middle East. This has been in reaction to dictatorial governments, low wages, high prices for food and few jobs. As we have said over and over again, revolutions begin with empty bellies. What you are seeing will not be limited to the third and second worlds, but to the first world as well. the elitists have again gone too far and the people of the world are reacting. This is only the beginning of dramatically higher food prices and perhaps oil and gas prices as well. Governments cannot help, nor can the elitists behind the scenes for all intents and purposes, saving the system is now out of their hands and what they have done has been discovered.

Most countries have followed the path of the US, UK and Europe, accumulating deficits many of which are unpayable. Essentially the world banking system is bankrupt. The Fed and the ECB buy debt and toxic debt as well as sovereign debt; the funds used for this purpose are created out of thin air. Sooner or later there will be a major worldwide meeting to revalue, devalue, and to multilaterally default. This can be the only solution to 40 years of profligacy and fiat currencies. The present cover-ups by central banks, Wall Street, banking and the City of London won’t last much longer. Unemployment worldwide and higher inflation are worsening and can only end in social and political dislocation. How can a government such as the US continue to spend in excess of 60% of revenues and expect others then the Fed to purchase their bonds? Spending has to be cut and taxes raised over a five year period. If that doesn’t happen and we get QE3 and more stimuli there will be ever more inflation and debt. Finally there will be financial collapse.

Bob Chapman is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Bob Chapman

Financial Dislocation: Cycles and booms and busts just don’t happen. They are planned…

[Sovereign Independent]

The Sound of Distant Hoofbeats

without comments

by John Michael Greer

There are moments when the things nobody wants to talk about brush the surface, like deepwater fish rising briefly to catch the sun on their backs before plunging again into the underwater shadows. Two of those moments happened in the last few days, and I’d like to discuss them briefly before we get back into the practicalities of life in an age of declining energy availability.

One of those moments was set in motion by something that was almost certainly meant to have the opposite effect. This was the recent pronouncement from umpty-billionaire Warren Buffett, who clambered into the media pulpit last week to insist that the United States is not in decline, and indeed that its best days are still ahead of it. A man with Buffett’s income can be forgiven for believing this; the last few decades, after all, have been inordinately good for umpty-billionaires, though they’ve been rather noticeably less so for the other 99-plus per cent of the American people. As long as the current order of affairs remains welded in place in Washington DC and elsewhere, it’s entirely possible that the days of billion-dollar bonuses for the guys at the top are not quite over yet.

Still, from any other perspective, Buffett’s utterance bears an uncanny similarity to the fine art of whistling past the graveyard. Nations in the rising curve of their history do not need to hear platitudes from obscenely rich pundits to recognize that better days are ahead. Empires on the way down, on the other hand, can count on hearing plenty of pronouncements of this sort, from plenty of people of Buffett’s kind; the British media was brimfull of such utterances by titled statesmen and overpaid financiers all through the period when the British empire was coming apart at the seams. There’s also more than a little echo of the organized reassurance John Kenneth Galbraith chronicled so gleefully in The Great Crash 1929, the efforts by the very rich in the wake of the 1929 crash to insist that the market and the economy were just fine when, by every objective measure, they weren’t.

The second moment I’d like to mention may have helped to cause the first. This was a quiet little article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal commenting, in measured tones, that for the first time in living memory an international crisis has sent investment money running away from US dollar-denominated investments rather than toward them. For decades now, as most of my readers will doubtless be aware, the US dollar has had the reputation of a safe haven for investments, and wars, revolutions, and financial crises overseas have reliably sparked flows of money into investments denominated in dollars, most of them here in the United States. That’s one of the factors that have kept America’s interest rates down and its trade deficit manageable, at least so far, in the face of the federal government’s epic mismanagement of the public purse.

Those days may just be over. The article just mentioned notes that since the current round of troubles hit North Africa and the Middle East, money has been flowing away from the dollar, heading toward other relatively stable currencies such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Even the euro, which has its own drastic problems, has benefited noticeably from the flight from the dollar. It’s hard to be sure exactly what’s behind this epochal shift, but it’s hard to ignore the possibility that what currently carries the engagingly timid moniker “quantitative easing” – that is, the United States government’s current practice of paying for its deficit spending by having the Federal Reserve print money to buy treasury bills nobody else is willing to take – has started to spook overseas investors.

If so, they’re right to be spooked. When a nation starts funding deficit spending via the printing press, its currency’s days are numbered. It’s true, of course, as plenty of thoughtful people have pointed out in the peak oil blogosphere, that the US money supply in its broadest sense – including all forms of debt, which count as money in our current hallucinatory economy – has contracted sharply in the wake of the 2008 housing-bubble crash, and would have contracted a great deal more if the government hadn’t basically encouraged banks to pretend that the mountains of worthless mortgage-backed securities in their vaults still had the value credited to them, at least in the delusions of real estate promoters, circa 2006. Still, it’s not often remembered that the value of a currency isn’t a function of the money supply alone; like every other measure of value, it’s a function of the relationship between supply and demand, and a currency that’s contracting can still tip over into inflation, even hyperinflation, if the demand for it drops faster than the supply.

For what it’s worth, my best guess at the moment – which is all that any observer of the economy can offer – is that we’re headed for what I’ve called hyperstagflation, more or less 1970s-style stagflation on steroids, complete with a bad case of ‘roid rage. The ingredients for that are already in place: soaring commodity prices, a US economy in freefall, and interruptions in the free flow of petroleum caused, to make the sense of deja vu complete, by troubles in the Middle East. Still, a good deal depends on just how hyperactive the Fed’s printing presses get in the months ahead. If the current shift away from dollar-denominated investments turns into a panic, as it might, and the stock market crashes in response, as it could, and the Obama administration decides to respond with yet another “quantitative easing” program to prop up the market with a flood of freshly printed money, as recent experience suggests it very likely would – well, you can do the math for yourself.

One way or another, though, whatever income my readers happen to have coming their way in the months and years ahead is likely to buy quite a bit less energy than the same amount of money buys at present. That makes finding ways to make less energy do more work crucial just now – and that, in turn, leads to windows.

If you’ve caulked and weatherstripped your home, and have a decently thick layer of insulation in the attic, your windows are where the largest fraction of your remaining heating bills go dancing out into the great outdoors. Window glass has an R-value (R means resistance to heat flow, remember?) right around 1 per layer of glass, so a double-pane window has an R-value of 2, or maybe a bit more: that is to say, not much. Interestingly, this is true no matter how fancy or expensive the windows happen to be: you get an R-value of 2 or so from an old-fashioned single-pane window with storm windows slapped on the outside, and you also get an R-value right around 2 from a very expensive vinyl-framed double-pane window with the space between the panes pumped full of inert gas, or what have you. If you want a higher R-value, glass is not going to give it to you.

One point worth taking home from this last comment is that if you’ve got windows that don’t serve a useful purpose, getting rid of them, permanently or temporarily, may be your best option. It takes a certain amount of skill at carpentry to take out a window and seal up the opening so that the resulting wall is weathertight and well insulated; if you don’t happen to have the skills, your friendly local handyperson can do the job in a day or so, and it’s often money well worth spending. If you don’t feel confident in doing anything so drastic, get some rigid-board insulation from your local lumber store, cut it to fit exactly into the window opening from inside, and then cut a sheet of hardboard to fit the same opening, inside the insulation; glue the insulation to the hardboard, paint the hardboard to match the wall, weatherstrip the edges of the hardboard so that you’ve got a good tight seal around the sides, top, and bottom to prevent air leaks, slide it into place and you’re good to go. If you live in a place with cold winters, closing up half a dozen windows in this way during the cold season can save you quite a bit on your heating bills.

What if you want something more easily movable, so you can catch the rays of the winter sun when it’s out but close things up easily at night? Here we come to one of the great forgotten secrets of the Seventies appropriate-tech movement, the fine art of insulated window coverings.

I had the chance to learn about those personally in my teen years. In 1977, my family moved from a rental house in a down-at-heels Seattle suburb to a larger and more comfortable place we actually owned – well, subject to mortgage and all that, but you get the idea. The one drawback was that the new place was expensive to heat, and that was mostly because most of the main floor’s walls facing southeast, toward a stunning view of the Cascade Mountains, consisted of single-pane windows. Insulated window coverings were much talked about in those days of high energy costs and state-funded conservation programs; my stepmother found a pattern, fired up her sewing machine, and made what amounted to a set of inexpensive quilts – faced inside and out with the ornately printed sheets popular in those days, and filled with polyester batting – rigged to slide up and down like Roman blinds. They went up in the morning and down with the sun, and the monthly heating bills dropped by a very noticeable fraction.

There are dozens of designs for insulated window coverings – or, more precisely, there were dozens of designs. It will take you a bit of searching to find them nowadays, as a result of the thirty-year vacation from reality American society took in 1980 or thereabouts. All the designs have certain things in common. The first, obviously enough, is that they put a bunch of additional insulation over the window. How much? A good rule of thumb is that your windows, with window coverings in place, should be as well insulated as the wall on either side – for an uninsulated wall of normal American housing construction, this means around R-5, and up from there as your level of insulation improves.

The second common feature is that the window covering should be sealed around the window, especially at top and bottom. Conventional curtains, open at top and bottom, can actually increase your heat loss by convection: air up against the window glass is chilled and flows out the bottom opening, making a draft across the floor, while warm air gets drawn in through the bottom opening and flows across the glass, cooling as it goes. Stop that “flue effect” and you instantly make the room more comfortable. The insulated shades my stepmother made were pressed right up against the wall above the windows, and had little magnets sewn in along the edges to hold them against metal strips in the wall beside and below the windows; there were many other tricks used to do the same thing.

The third common feature is that the window covering should contain a vapor barrier. Ours didn’t, which meant that the windows were thick with condensation when the shades went up in the morning, and often had to be mopped off with a rag. A layer of something waterproof, on the side of the insulation closest to the interior space, will prevent that, and avoid problems with mold, water damage, and the like.

Beyond these three points, the options are nearly unlimited. It’s entirely possible to use something like ordinary curtains to get the same effect, as long as they have something holding them tight against the wall on all sides of the window opening. Shades were a very common approach, and so were shutters of various kinds, hinged or sliding or even concealed within pockets built out from the walls. One of the most elegant examples I know involved built-in bookcases along a northern wall; there was a gap behind them just wide enough to make room for sliding shutters, and at night the homeowner simply pulled two inconspicuous handles together and turned the window into an R-12 wall.

These same techniques can be used in two additional ways to help save energy. The first is to use insulated coverings inside a solar greenhouse at night. The same clear surfaces that let sunlight into a greenhouse lose plenty of heat at night; equip your greenhouse with some sort of movable insulation to cover the glazing at night, and it becomes possible to run a solar greenhouse much more efficiently in cold weather. The other is the old medieval custom of using cloth hangings, a few inches out from the wall, to insulate an otherwise chilly space. That’s what all those tapestries were doing in medieval castles; insulated wall hangings can function exactly the same way in a modern house, so long as they extend from floor to ceiling on exterior walls, and have both a reasonable amount of insulation in them and a couple of inches of air space between the fabric and the wall.

None of these things are particularly difficult or expensive to make. If you have some basic facility with a sewing machine – and if you don’t, getting it might be a worthwhile project sometime very soon – you can knock together a good set of insulated window coverings for a couple of rooms in a couple of hours, using storebought sheets and some quilt batting as your raw materials. If you know how to handle a saw, a screwdriver, and a carpenter’s square – again, these are skills worth acquiring soon if you don’t have them already – it won’t take any longer to turn some lumber, hardboard, and rigid board insulation into good sturdy insulated shutters.

The time to get these skills, and get your window insulation in place, is now. Just as the inhabitants of dying empires in the past used to listen nervously for the distant sound of hoofbeats that told them the barbarians were on the way, those who are paying attention to the predicament of our own time need to get used to listening for the cracks and judderings of an overburdened system as it lurches down the slope of its own decline and fall. Those faint noises and brief glimpses may be the closest thing to a warning that we’ll get.

Resources

Once again, the Master Conservers papers at the Cultural Conservers Foundation website provide a good introduction; the paper you want for this week’s topic is titled, not surprisingly, “Insulated Window Coverings.” There were also several very good books on the subject published back in the day; far and away my favorite is William K. Langdon’s Movable Insulation, but William Shurcliff’s Thermal Shades and Shutters and Judy Lindahl’s Energy Saving Decorating are also worth a look if you can find them.

The Sound of Distant Hoofbeats

[The Archdruid Report]

Written by testudoetlepus

March 3rd, 2011 at 4:21 pm

How To Fake An Economic Recovery

without comments

By Giordano Bruno

Neithercorp Press – 2/16/2011

This may be a highly distasteful proposition, but just for a moment, I want you to sit back, and imagine that you are a member of the corporate banking elite. You are a walking talking disease ridden power mad pustule who naively believes himself intellectually superior to the vast majority of humanity and above the inherent laws of conscience, honor, and general good taste. You are a villain in the purest sense, in that you not only do great harm to the world, you actually SEEK to do great harm to the world, if only to benefit yourself and your exclusive circle of “friends”; a clan of degenerate blood thirsty sociopaths with delusions of omnipotence that stalk the night like Armani wearing Chupacabra exsanguinating the joy from poor unsuspecting cultures. You are capable of anything, and sadly, you take “pride” in this fact…

You aren’t “rich” in the traditional sense. You aren’t a “Bill Gates” or a “Donald Trump” (I’m beginning to wonder if Donald Trump is even solvent, or if his entire fortune is a special-effect courtesy of NBC). No, you don’t “make” money, you MAKE the money. You are a global financier. You are a central banker. You create the fiat that the rest of the country uses to sustain its fantasy economy. You dominate trade through monopoly and corporate fraud. You control the flow of currency through an economic system using fractional reserve banking, artificially pegged interest rates, and your ever trusty printing press. You put your substantial monetary clout behind BOTH major political parties, and groom presidential candidates to your globalist standards. Any politician who desires to climb the ladder of power turns to you for assistance, not the voting public. You have a tremendous financial stake in every corporate news provider in the country, if not own them outright. You invite their top reporters to posh banquets, give them unlimited access to prominent social figures and high rollers, and fly them to private alcohol addled orgies in the middle of the California Redwoods (I wish this was all made up). Forget responsible journalism, they love hanging out with you, and would probably write whatever you tell them to.

Now that you have placed yourself in the tight fitting shoes of the “enlightened few”, I want you to imagine that you have engineered an implosion in national credit sectors using ultra-low interest rates to fuel mortgage and derivatives bubbles that would contract at an unprecedented pace once it is revealed to the wider investment world that those equities which they prized only days before are now “toxic”, essentially worthless, due to mass debt defaults on loans which never should have been made in the first place. Yeah, you’re a real dirtbag.

Of course, you aren’t finished yet! Your ultimate goal is centralization, and the key to centralization is to remove all options available to the masses but one; the option which garners you the greatest amount of dominance. A global economic system based on a single world currency and a single unaccountable governing body would be ideal. What would you call this world currency? I don’t know, how about something innocuous sounding like….Special Drawing Rights (SDR’s), which you can then label as a mere “basket of currencies” when it is really a parasitic financial instrument meant to absorb currencies until it replaces them completely:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0214/g20-business.html

In order to begin instituting this world currency, you would first need to remove the standing world reserve currency from its exalted position, that currency being the U.S. dollar. This seems rather impossible to many mainstream analysts who cannot fathom the possibility of a breakdown in the mighty Greenback, but you have already set the stage. You have created a progressive debt singularity so immense that no amount of fiat, no amount of taxation, no amount of austerity could ever satiate its hunger. You now have the perfect excuse to print the dollar with wild abandon until its withered, corpsified remains are six feet underground, leaving the door wide open for the tap dancing fast-talking SDR to take its place.

The issue is, how do you convince the general public that all is well until you are ready to unleash hyperinflation and fiscal Armageddon? How do you make them believe with all their hearts that they are not in the midst of a debt meltdown and the end of their financial sovereignty, but basking in a full-on economic recovery?!

You can’t stop wealth destruction now that the avalanche has been set in motion. You can’t stop inflation and dollar devaluation (nor would you want to. Hey, you’re evil incarnate, remember?). The effects on mainstreet are beyond your ability to hide, but, what you CAN manipulate, are the statistics and indices that Americans rely on for psychological comfort. You give everyone a blindfold and a cigarette and you do what you do best; lie!

Here is a step by step guide to fabricating an economic recovery out of thin air….

Don’t Count The Unemployed, Discount Them: Jobless people are a real downer and a pesky nuisance because they represent living breathing proof that a recovery is not taking place. By most standards, a recovery in jobs markets can be claimed if meaningful evidence shows a return to unemployment standards (normal unemployment) set before the recession / depression was triggered. If you are a global banker today, however, this will not do. Instead, you simply change the definition of “normal unemployment”. Thus, the debilitating jobless rate which was originally thought of as “bad”, is now thought of as “natural”. You must then publish long-winded white papers using more subjective statistics devoid of common sense while feigning a logical pretense:

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-05.html

This only satisfies a small portion of the populace, though. Next, you must rig the manner in which unemployment is calculated to always overlook certain subsections of jobless. Never count those people who have been unemployed so long that they no longer receive benefits. Always count people who are underemployed as fully employed, even if they are only able to scrape together ten hours a week through part time McSlavery. After this, change the manner in which raw data on unemployment is actually collected.

First, the Labor Department derives most of its raw data on unemployment not through any traditional mathematical means, but through two separate surveys which are open to wide interpretation; an establishment survey, and a household survey. The establishment survey is what we hear about at the beginning of every month, while the household survey tends to float under the mainstream radar. In 2009 and 2010, the Labor Department deemed the household survey data (a phone driven survey of 60,000 households) “more reliable” for indicating job growth, because it was supposedly accurate in counting small business hiring and self-employment. So, you have two separate surveys (unscientific indicators of employment) combined together to produce a job growth rate number, and an unemployment percentage, both of which represent, at the most, a GUESS on the current state of jobs in this country.

While the establishment survey showed only 36,000 jobs created, the household survey somehow showed around 600,000 new jobs created!?:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Basically, the BLS is asking you to believe that over 600,000 people either started their own businesses, or were hired by home based businesses in the month of January alone. I’m curious as to where all the capital inflows are coming from to launch such a revolution in home entrepreneurship in the middle of the greatest credit crisis in history. Oh well, if the Labor Department says it’s true, it must be…

The juxtaposition of odd data collection methods is the reason why the government was able to claim a drop from 9.4% to 9% in the jobless rate while announcing only 36,000 jobs created! The household survey has become an incredibly useful tool for generating arbitrary employment data which can be molded to say whatever government officials and central bankers want it to say. Anyone who controls the source data for a calculation controls the outcome of that calculation. It’s that simple.

What I wouldn’t want, if I was the Labor Department, is for some outside independent citizens group to monitor my survey methods while in progress. That would make life for a statistical huckster very difficult indeed.

As Long As Stocks Are Green, The World Is Golden: Near zero interest rates can be very useful if a central bank wishes to throw a tidal wave of fiat into a particular index in order to make it appear healthy. Certainly, the Fed has avoided admitting to any manipulation of the stock market. QE measures are all “above the board”, and all is well in Bernanke’s Mayberry. A question arises here though that desperately begs to be answered; if the stock market’s meteoric rise from near destruction to the 12,000 point mark is “real”, and completely in tune with a legitimate recovery, then why is the Fed still keeping interest rates at near zero after almost three years, and why are they continuing quantitative easing measures? Could it be that without constant liquidity injections from the Fed, the stock market would once again collapse like a wet paper sack? We know that in 2009, it was revealed that bailout funds which were supposed to go towards muting the effects of toxic bank assets were actually being pumped into the equities of healthy banks instead, meaning,the money has not been allocated to the areas promised:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1436061/more_shocking_news_on_2009_bailout.html

We also know that top hedge fund managers have openly stated that stocks will remain bullish because QE funds are propping up the market:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tepper-tells-cnbc-fed-will-prop-up-market-2010-09-24

And, frankly, if you are a global banking cartel intent on keeping the American people in the dark, it makes perfect sense to prop up stocks. A Dow in the green is like a mass dose of fiscal lithium; it calms investors into a stupor. Even people who are otherwise unconcerned about economics will keep track of the Dow as if it is a solid indicator of their personal financial safety. A great test would be to observe market reactions to a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and a freezing of QE in order to counter inflation. Will the Dow stand on its own two feet then? I seriously doubt it, but then again, I don’t know that the Fed will ever raise interest rates again…

Inflation? What Inflation?: Unmitigated inflation spells doom for any society. It’s like some monetary based animal instinct deep down in our collective unconscious. The moment we hear the word “inflation” or see prices rise dramatically, we revert to survival mode and begin honing our mammoth bone battle mallets. Governments and central banks throughout history have made it their top priority to hide the effects of inflation from the citizenry at all costs.

To mask inflation is nearly impossible, especially where commodities and base goods are concerned. That’s why our government and private central bank calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) without counting food or energy. Most grains and crude oil have doubled in price over the past year alone, and this does not reflect well on the safety of the dollar, or the effectiveness of liquidity measures by the Fed. China, whose inflation is but a prequel to our own, is also distancing food and energy price surges from its CPI numbers, giving the false impression of leveling markets:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-lowers-weighting-surging-food-prices-cpi

Corporate retail chains have a tendency to absorb rising prices of base goods to avoid alienating their customer foundation, hoping that the increases are temporary. When retailers realize that prices are not going to drop back down, they eventually relent, and shelf costs skyrocket. The bottom line is clear; overall worldwide food averages were up over 28% in 2010:

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/

Crude oil prices continue to hover near the $90 mark even though inventories are at a 20 year high:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gasoline-inventories-jump-20-year-high-gas-price-surges

The World Bank is now warning of possible disasters (which they helped create) in the wake of “dangerous price levels”:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/us-worldbank-food-idUSTRE71E5H720110215

Our government’s response? Complete denial that there is any significant threat of inflation. Denial that overprinting of the dollar and its subsequent devaluation has anything to do with rising prices. Scapegoating everything from weather, to speculators, to the fake “recovery” itself for price spikes. The longer they keep the terminology of inflation out of the mainstream, the less Americans are likely to prepare for an onslaught of the dollar.

Create Debt To Pay Off Debt: This is pretty self explanatory. If foreign investors want nothing to do with you, your explosive national debt, or your depreciating currency, where is your government going to get the money to continue spending like a drunken trophy wife at Macy’s? If you default, the jig is up, and no one will buy your recovery yarns. Instead, print even more fiat and use it to purchase your own Treasury bonds! This serves two purposes; first, it props up the federal bureaucracy which gives the impression of stability (at least for a time), and, it furthers your goal of squeezing the dollar like a grape.

Remove All Checks And Balances: If you plan on decimating an economy, you can’t very well have people pointing fingers at you while you do it. That would be inconvenient. It’s funny, but for years, ratings agencies like Moodys helped global banks facilitate the mortgage and derivatives crisis by categorizing worthless assets as AAA securities. Without them, no one would have invested in such garbage in the first place, and the banking fraud would have been immediately exposed. Now that ratings agencies are finally doing their job and downgrading the creditworthiness of banks and countries that possess extreme liabilities, the SEC is moving to marginalize them:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/09/us-financial-regulation-creditraters-idUSTRE7180OD20110209

Interesting that as the U.S. nears a possible credit downgrade, we suddenly no longer care what ratings agencies have to say.

The SEC in itself is one enormous joke, and in no way a practical overseer of banking activity. The organization has shown itself to be either fantastically incompetent, or deliberately indifferent to ongoing financial fraud. I never thought I would find myself agreeing with a cretin like Bernie Madoff, but according to the middle-weight Ponzi artist, global banks he dealt with, like JP Morgan and HSBC, had to be perfectly aware of the scam he was undertaking, otherwise, it could not have been possible:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/16/us-madoff-interview-idUSTRE71F0QD20110216

Likewise, the SEC’s complete lack of proper investigation into such activities turned Wall Street into a globalist playground where much bigger conmen than Madoff have nested and bred like fleas. It’s not that the system needs more regulation, or more legal wrangling; this would accomplish nothing, because the system is regulated by the criminals! Therefore, new laws can be enacted in concert, and the government can deem the system reformed and recovered, all while the underlying corruption remains untouched. If the poison that instigated the fall of the markets is not uprooted, treachery will continue to reign supreme, and healthy markets a childish illusion.

The Creeping Terror

Two years ago I was in my local Borders bookstore and noticed that they had downsized their stock selection by what looked to be nearly a third. I made a point to ask if this was a chain wide phenomenon. Most employees I talked with said yes. I then asked if they had begun cutting employee hours by significant margins and specifically laying off longtime workers that had built up substantial pay increases. Again, the consensus was yes. Finally, and most importantly, did Borders discuss these changes with their staff in a manner that was informative and open, or, was there a lot of confusion amongst employees as to what exactly was going on? The response was that they were overwhelmingly bewildered by Borders’ lack of clear communication as to the direction of the corporation.

My suggestion to them was to start looking for another job, because their company was about to declare bankruptcy. They, of course, denied this was remotely likely:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704329104576138353865644420.html

It may sound like a stretch, but the reason I bring up Borders’ impending chapter 11 is because, to me, it represents a microcosm of the creeping nature of economic collapse, especially when that collapse is being wielded and delegated.

Borders has been on the verge of default for quite a while. Did they refuse to relay this information openly to their employees because they selfishly wanted to maintain profit margins just a little longer until they were ready to pull the plug? Of course! Do global bankers with aspirations of a centralized currency keep the true destabilization of the market spectrum and the coming international dollar dump to themselves because in the end they will benefit from our shock and awe? Of course!

Whether a person loses everything all at once, or a piece at a time, the end result is the same, however, there is something especially cruel in the idea of fiscal theater; the act of inspiring false hope that a financial environment is sound when it has, in truth, already suffocated. Why would our modern day robber barons put so much energy into constructing a fake recovery? There are many reasons, but first and foremost, to create apathy. To lure us towards inaction. To swindle us into assuming the storm will blow over, and all will return as it was. Unfortunately, recovery without intense restructuring of our economic system is impossible. The fundamentals do not support the suggestion in the slightest. The question is, who will be at the helm when the dust settles and this restructuring does eventually occur? Will the American people take the lead, as they should, and commit to a concrete free market rejuvenation of our financial environment? Or, will we sit back yet again, and let the banksters set us up for the next grand disaster?

You can contact Giordano Bruno at: giordano@neithercorp.us

If you would like to contribute to our soon to be launched Alternative Market Project, visit our donate page here: http://neithercorp.us/npress/donate/

How To Fake An Economic Recovery

[Neithercorp Press]

Written by testudoetlepus

February 16th, 2011 at 3:43 pm